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[NL20-NL50] NL25FR turned Straight horribly river.

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 442072
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: $28.62
      Hero (MP1): $33.59
      MP2: $7.50
      CO: $26.80
      BTN: $37.83
      SB: $5.35
      BB: $23.95
      UTG: $4.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with J :heart: T :spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

      Flop: ($2.05) K :diamond: 9 :heart: 7 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.05) Q :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, BTN calls $3

      River: ($11.05) Q :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.00, BTN raises to $16, Hero calls $9

      I wanted to Bet/Fold river but then I suddenly reconsidered due to villain being 38/29 with 35% river aggression. I thought "Heh, he could be doing this with AK or Qx for value folding would be stupid".

      Now I reconsidered his range and I think that most of his raising range on the river will just be the passively played set or QK, Q9 or maybe Q7 to Full-House so it should have been an easy fold. Even this guy wouldn't call a naked Q two streets.

      I got deceived by the stats into making the wrong decision damn it! Sometimes I think I would play better without them.
  • 2 replies
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      You have to call 9 to win 43 so you need a little over 20% equity to call - you have to answer yourself if he's raising you with worse on the river once in six times.

      If he's that aggressive a check/call might also be the option here.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would not bet/fold river with straight, since he has to have there 77/99 or KQ, but I think 38/29 has a lot wider river raising range and also you might even see there sometimes some bluffs, so imo it is easy call