Never Ending Downswing: Why I should be a winning player

    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      I didn't come here to whine about my aces cracked with 93 because it's suited nor about getting runner-runner-ed again.
      I came here to talk about never ending bad beat which lasts for around 6 months from 9 months I play poker in total.

      I played around 12.000 Double or Nothings so far and I find myself to be a very good player. I started with 50 $ I got here, and went to Pacific poker, and here is the pattern: first ~month and a half I was doing great, went to around 400 $ and cleared 100 $ bonus ... and then all went to hell, started losing in some incredible ways which I won't mention (just imagine the worst bad beat ... it surely happened) and went almost broke.

      Then I said fuck it and went with 10 $ to Poker Stars to try it out (atleast there I didn't have to wait for ages to get a table going). And guess what, in a first ~month and a half I went from 10 $ to 600 $ + 300 $ of incoming reload bonus + 285 $ worth of FPP-s.

      Great huh?

      2 Months later I went down to 100 $ and I played better then before and stayed at 100 $ for 3 more months.

      I have to mention that I never tilt no matter what kind of bad beat happens (maybe I sometimes go nuts on my furniture but not in the poker room).

      So somewhere along the way I thought: "Shit! Maybe this is not a bad beat, right? Maybe I was just lucky those first months and then luck went normal". So I started writing down my chances when going all in (using the equilator) opposed to % I actually won and here are the results:

      Last 5500 All ins: on average I was ahead 56.9% and I won only 52.8%.

      So I guess I wasn't tripping out, and to demonstrate how much that 4.1 percent means ... it lasts for roughly 9000 DoN's I played (5$ and 10$ ones in almost equal numbers) so let's say if I won those 4.1% I was supposed to win maybe 3% of the DoN's more.
      3% of 9000 = 270;
      270 * 15 $ (average winning per one) = 4050 $

      Thats how much was taken away from me.
      Not to mention that I'd be going to the 20s and 50s and maybe earn even more (or less).

      At the moment I got 20 $ and I'm playing 1 $ ones, I'm feeling hmm, whats the word ... disappointed.

      Addition: Those 5500 All ins I kept track off were in the period when I was break even ... who knows what was going on when I went from ~1200 $ to 100 $ in those 2 months.
  • 164 replies
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
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      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by NenadNacevic
      I played around 12.000 Double or Nothings so far and I find myself to be a very good player.
      Advice 1 - See that's the problem - you should stop thinking you are a good player and start to search for leaks in your game.

      Originally posted by NenadNacevic2 Months later I went down to 100 $ and I played better then before
      Advice 2 - See Advice 1. Follow it this time!

      Originally posted by NenadNacevic270 * 15 $ (average winning per one) = 4050 $[/COLOR]
      Thats how much was taken away from me.
      No. It was not taken from you because you never actually had them in your bankroll! Or can Phil Ivey say that a few million dollars were taken away from him when his AK lost to AQ from Darvin Moon at this year's WSOP?
      What's taken from you when you lose all your chips in a tournament is your tourney equity, your buy in, not the money you think you should've won.

      Keep grinding and it'll be OK!
    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      I appreciate your insight bud, but i don't think you got it right.

      I wrote I find myself to be a very good player because I am a very good player. Number of games played have nothing to do with it. But I can see how some people find the connection.
      Those 56.9 % I'm ahead on average, include:
      1) forced all ins with crap when I'm too low on chips
      2) all ins against 2+ players (when I'm the first one to go all in and others call)

      I find that percent to be very good considering the things I mentioned, I'm very realistic about this.

      I analise every move I make, note the mistakes and not do it again, so when I said I played better then before ... that's true as well.

      And finally, I mentioned how many games I played because that is in fact a long run, and I shouldn't be experiencing 4% of a difference.
      I have every right to find it "taken away from me" because I should have had it.

      It's like having a job, working good and hard and at the end of a month your boss tells you: "Sorry my ol' man no salary this month ... but no fuss, it wasn't in your pocket anyways, right?"

      Again, I'm not trying to bash your reply here, just defending my point of view.
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
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      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      Originally posted by NenadNacevic
      I wrote I find myself to be a very good player because I am a very good player.
      Love that :f_grin: I don't doubt in your skills. Good luck and don't tilt!
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      5500 isn't that big of a sample size, a few percent deviation is to be expected. Also, if DoN is your main game you are simply not a very good player, albeit a winning one.
    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      Ok, let's say I'm decent DoN player ... why would you think that DoN's are easier then other games is beyond me.

      I saw your post about losing some money "every fucking time for 3 days".

      Try last 150 days and multiply the rage by 2 every next week it happens.

      Emotions I experienced during that period: Anger --> Rage --> More Rage --> Some More Rage --> Desperation --> Disappointment --> Not Caring For Most of Them.

      You'll find that your "losing EVERY time" is in fact maybe 5% deviation in that particular day ... same as me but every day. You just have to note it like me and you will see.

      And its not just those 5500 All Ins ... It's more like 12000. I just didn't keep track of it from the start.

      Peace.
    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      Here's the reason I finally snapped and wrote this thread in the first place.

      Last night I played 6 tables at a time:

      1st table:
      Hero: 9 :diamond: 9 :club:
      Villain: A :heart: 8 :heart:

      All in on Flop: A :diamond: 9 :heart: J :diamond:

      Beat by runner runner flush.


      2nd table:
      First, the guy who was supposed to go out for the win, wins the hand against 2 people by getting a runner runner flush, while one of then had 2 pairs on the flop.

      Then...

      Hero: A :club: K :club:
      Villain: Q :spade: 8 :spade:

      All in on flop: 2 :club: K :spade: 3 :diamond:

      Beat by runner runner flush again.


      3rd table:
      Hero: Q :heart: Q :spade:
      Villain: Q :club: 6 :diamond:

      All in preflop.

      Flop: 6 :heart: 2 :diamond: 6 :club:


      4th table:
      Hero: K :heart: K :club:
      Villain: A :heart: 2 :heart:

      All in preflop.

      In short, he got his ace.


      5th table:
      We are 6, and 1 guy is forced all in against 4 of us, he wins.
      Then the same guy is going all in against 3 of us, because hes still very low and callable, and he wins.
      Then some other guy goes all in against 3 of us and he wins.

      At the end I went out with better hand, can't remember what it was.


      6th table:
      I won, woo-hoo!


      Almost every day is like this, only a little less harsh. Every day I'm losing atleast 3-4 tables more then I should have.
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by NenadNacevic
      Ok, let's say I'm decent DoN player ... why would you think that DoN's are easier then other games is beyond me.
      Because they require less skill than any other poker variant, save perhaps basic SSS.

      Originally posted by NenadNacevic
      I saw your post about losing some money "every fucking time for 3 days".

      Try last 150 days and multiply the rage by 2 every next week it happens.
      2,825,354 times more rage? Wow, that's disturbing even by my standards.

      Originally posted by NenadNacevic
      You'll find that your "losing EVERY time" is in fact maybe 5% deviation in that particular day ... same as me but every day. You just have to note it like me and you will see.
      I might not be the best example to go with here because I'm not a good player. But to address your point, I did feel doomswitched back when I wrote that post. However, the overwhelming majority of times when everything went according to plans I didn't come to the forum to complain, so I'm well aware it was just a small percentage compared to the grand total.

      Here's a question I've been waiting to pop since I started typing this. If you run so terribly at DoNs, why not try another variant?
    • ZhiCheng
      ZhiCheng
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      Joined: 04.10.2008 Posts: 2,294
      Bad beats are the best way to lose the pot as you make money in long term when ur opp makes mistakes..
      It keeps bad players playing
      It encourages them to play the hand same wrongly again next time
      Bad beats are good poker players best friends my mate
      Be thankful for badbeats :)
    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      Here's a question I've been waiting to pop since I started typing this. If you run so terribly at DoNs, why not try another variant?


      I thought the same thing around a month and a half ago and went out to try other games.

      Regarding regular SnG's, I actually started out with those at FullTilt, I maybe played around 600 while maintaining around break even ... and then went down. That was before I read any articles on how to actually play poker.
      10 Days ago I tried it again, and I did solid (from 20 games, 3 firsts, 3 seconds and 2 thirds as I recall), but I just didn't feel comfortable, since I'm used to DoN's and mainly: I had 3+ million of hands on the DoN players on Poker Tracker.

      Maybe I should go for SnG's a little more serious, who knows.

      Tried cash games as well but didn't like it much, wasn't losing money but I'm frankly not so good in the postflop play. Could rate myself maybe 4 out of 10.
      I'm definitely bluffed too much, and I should improve on that maybe, but to be honest I never needed any great postflop play in the DoN's or SnG's.
      I can bluff good and squeeze out as much chips as possible when I have the best hand and that's enough i think.

      And to tell you about "which is harder, DoN or regular SnG?" ...
      In SnG you only have to be a little more aggressive later in the game and thats it, almost the same (in my opinion).
      Except that, later in the game (in SnG) you can't go wrong with a push if you got a good hand ... while in the DoN you most definatly can, even with JJ+ AJ+.

      Imagine this:

      There are six people at the table (5 gets the money).
      Blinds are 200/400.
      You are SB with 800 chips.
      BB got 4800 chips.
      One guy got 600 chips and is BB in the next few hands.

      Everyone folds and you have AK, what do you do?
    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      I thought that would be enough whining, but I'm going to keep coming here until this bad beat stops.

      I keep winning 5% less hands then I should and it's really fucking frustrating.

      Can you imagine this: We are 6 and I'm one of the lower stacks and I'm holding KK or QQ. I'm going all in, usually as SB or button after everyone folds and I run into AA (if I got KK) or AA/KK (if I got QQ).
      And that happened 7 times today.

      I mean what are the chances??
      It's like I'm meant to go out.
      Ridiculous.

      These few days I lost at least 10 games which I wasn't supposed to.
      Only today I lost AA to AK, AA to K8 (suited!), AA to KK, AA to J7 (suited!) ... from 12 AA's I had today. From the other ones maybe 2 of them doubled me up, the rest got no action.

      Not only that, but I as well lost 4 games today where I should have won, by losing that 6th player, who miraculously held in.
      Can you imagine a guy with 100 chips, winning with 72 (Seven fucking Two) against AK and QQ. Then next hand he wins with 89 against 99 and AJ ... and then I lose QQ against KQ.

      Above ... x 4.

      Now, I don't believe online poker is rigged, but what am I supposed to think when I experience things that are on border line with impossibility (in the long run).

      Yes, I feel a little bit better now.
    • Grailer
      Grailer
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      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 321
      It is rigged .

      However you can beat it . You just have to hope you get the nuts and someone bluffs you which rigged software cant protect them against.
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by Grailer
      It is rigged .

      However you can beat it . You just have to hope you get the nuts and someone bluffs you which rigged software cant protect them against.


      I laughed so hard I literally fell off my chair!
    • aceonetheriver
      aceonetheriver
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      Joined: 26.12.2008 Posts: 591
      Originally posted by Berzerger
      Originally posted by Grailer
      It is rigged .

      However you can beat it . You just have to hope you get the nuts and someone bluffs you which rigged software cant protect them against.


      I laughed so hard I literally fell off my chair!
      :D :D Grailer i'm ur number 1 fan :D
    • PeterLidegaard
      PeterLidegaard
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      Joined: 22.12.2009 Posts: 1
      well in 5500 cases the theoretical and the practice should be close to each other. However if you flip a coin 5500 times you would expect it to show each side 2750 times, but in fact that's not totally true, because when it hits the one side the first time it still has 50% chance of hitting the same side second time and so on. Of course it should go both ways at least in theory, but thats not always the case.

      If you imagine a heats-up tournament with 5500 players, where everyone is all-in in the first hand and the chips is reset every round, there will still be a winner, and this winner will ether win or have a tie in every round. But the chance/risk is small.

      Hmm.. it doesn't make much sense.. anyway hope you got the point: Shit happens.
    • chuongdk
      chuongdk
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      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 210
      I don't think DoN is more skill than SnG
    • i1nt2b3
      i1nt2b3
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      Joined: 23.11.2008 Posts: 19
      so can somebody with good mathematical knowledge and without pictures calculate the probability of this his thing to happen over his sample size? is the 4% of "bad luck" very common? why couldnt it be like 4% more wins?anybody has the other experience, like he has won 4% more flips over this run? thanx.
    • MrPavlos
      MrPavlos
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      Joined: 12.02.2009 Posts: 553
      Originally posted by aceonetheriver
      Originally posted by Berzerger
      Originally posted by Grailer
      It is rigged .

      However you can beat it . You just have to hope you get the nuts and someone bluffs you which rigged software cant protect them against.


      I laughed so hard I literally fell off my chair!
      :D :D Grailer i'm ur number 1 fan :D
      me number 2!!! :f_biggrin:
    • NenadNacevic
      NenadNacevic
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 101
      I don't think DoN is more skill than SnG


      I didn't say DoN is more skill, I said it's the same.
      How hard some game is depends on your knowledge of it and your capabilities. And as well it depends on ability of your opponents. (if they are bad - the game is easy; if they are good - it's hard)

      So, it all depends.

      well in 5500 cases the theoretical and the practice should be close to each other. However if you flip a coin 5500 times you would expect it to show each side 2750 times, but in fact that's not totally true, because when it hits the one side the first time it still has 50% chance of hitting the same side second time and so on. Of course it should go both ways at least in theory, but thats not always the case.


      I understood your post Peter. And I actually wanted to see what happens after I flip the coin few thousand times (took me 45 min. and my arm hurts lol)

      first 1000: 51.1% : 48.9%
      second 1000: 48.9% : 51.1%

      And I bet that for every next 1000 flips I wont get bigger difference then 4%
      That's only 1000, not 6500 or 13000 (if we're look from the beginning) like it happened to me.

      so can somebody with good mathematical knowledge and without pictures calculate the probability of this his thing to happen over his sample size? is the 4% of "bad luck" very common? why couldnt it be like 4% more wins?anybody has the other experience, like he has won 4% more flips over this run? thanx.


      That's what I'm wondering too bud.
      But after all, I really doubt I'll ever get back to even.
      I'd have to win 4% more for next 5-6 months ... you can see the problem there ... it just won't happen to me.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      I am sure it is quite possible to calculate the exact possibility of the variance you have encountered. I am not sure to what end however; unless merely for speculative purposes. Logic suggests you are just as likely to have the same amount of positive variance over the same sample size of hands, so suggesting you can never make back the amount you have 'lost' is a fallacy.

      It is important to understand that playing poker is still essentially gambling (flame away). It is merely gambling with favourable odds. You might be /likely/ to turn a profit so long as your plays are +EV but it is no dead cert. As your sample size of hands approaches infinity the amount you earn should gradually portray a more accurate representation of your expected value. In short, so long as you are confident in your plays being +EV the only counter to bad variance is to continue increasing your sample size.......so get grinding =)

      On a serious note though, this is possibly one of the toughest things poker players have to cope with. Many can't handle it, or they suffer it whilst inadvertently letting it throw them off their A-game. It is possible to flip an unbiased coin a million times and have it land on heads each time. Oh, unlikely to the superlative degree, but possible. Your job is to not let seemingly outrageous variance fuck with your head. If it was impossible, it wouldn't have happened.

      Good luck

      w34z3l