[NL2-NL10] nl400 calling resteal

    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      The guy has 20% 3bet (more than enough hands).. A7s has 43-45% equity depending on how you make up the 20% against this and I think I get 43% equity on the pot odds... do i fold this, or go for it?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $2/$4 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $846.30
      CO:
      $320.00
      BU(Hero):
      $79.90
      SB:
      $88.70
      BB:
      $98.30
      MP2:
      $55.60


      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, 7.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $10.00, SB folds, BB raises to $98.30, Hero calls $69.90(All-In).

      Flop: ($180.2) 5, K, 6 (2 players)


      Turn: ($180.2) T (2 players)


      River: ($180.2) 8 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $180.2.
  • 7 replies
    • AnnaKurnikowa
      AnnaKurnikowa
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2007 Posts: 1,364
      So you say he has 20% 3bet (samplesize? not for handcount - I'm talking of the effective NUMBER of 3bets!). Concerning the concrete range of "20%" your A7s has 43 - 47% EQ depending on how you actually define those 20%.

      Let's solve it by equity.


      46% (your EQ) * 81.9$ (money you win) - 3$ (Rake) = 34.67$

      54% (his EQ) * 69.9$ (your effective stack) = 37.7$


      34.67$ - 37.3$ = -2.63$

      With this equity calculation you loose sth. like 1 SB in each spot that you play here, so it's a really close fold (because of the rake!). All in all this may be a break-even spot regarding to the fact HOW you define his handrange, wether there are more low Aces included (that you have dominated) or more suited connectors (JTs, 98s etc.) where you have sth. like 35 - 40% EQ.

      Last but not least I don't think there is a "perfect" solution because it all comes down to (1) samplesize and (2) the definition of the 20%. Depends on how much you like variance ;)

      best regards,
      AK
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      yeah, when I called I took out the connected cards and gave him more ace hands.. and regarding sample size I had over 15k hands on him, so the 3bet sample size is pretty good I'm sure..
      The only thing I didn't take into account was rake, it seems to make quite a difference.
      Although another thing I wanted to do (that contributed to my decision to call) was to show this guy that I would call quite wide and hopefully make him think twice about 3betting me next time, and my steals can be more effective..
    • AnnaKurnikowa
      AnnaKurnikowa
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2007 Posts: 1,364
      there's the question if you suppose him to make notes on, if it can be profitable to take this slightly -EV spot in this specific case to win further on additional BB's regarding to a probably tighter restealing range against you, so this -EV spot may have a positive outcome on future spots and thus be +EV "overall".
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Do you play with HEM/PT? IF so can you post the popup to benefit from a better evaluation because everything has to be related with context which I cannot really see now in terms of stats.

      Hmm also dynamics would be awesome ( How do they see you, what is your ATS on BTN etc.)

      Thank you in advance
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      I assume this guy had stats on me, mainly because he multitables and has tight SSS stats..
      I've been trying to get my vpip/pfr up to around 13/12 or so while playing NL400, but looking at the way I've been playing it seems that I'm stuck at around 11/10 in the last 5k hands at NL400, however I of course open up in late position and my ATS in general is around 27% if he has the same number of hands on me, but I'd say it's more like 33% recently (in the last couple of thousand hands), roughly the same for sb steal..

      My general fold to 3bet is 57%... But I would say that about 80% of the time I only call a resteal with AJ+, 88+.. unless I have more than enough evidence that I'll have an edge with worse.
      At the time of this hand I had been playing quite tight..

      This is the villain:

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      So you raise 30% and only continue with 6.8%(AJ+,88+) which means you are folding 78% Approximately.

      Let's say you fold 70% so you call more due circumstances/reads, I found that realistic then

      If his average equity is 33%, he makes 1bb out of every situation (Pot 17, ES 80, DM 2)

      So basically that can be SCs, suited Aces/Kings, broadways. 22+ for sure. And I would not be surprised if he shows up with an ATC hand sometimes.

      But due the fact your =EV is like 44%, I think I agree with AK about close fold/call. Personally against this kind of guy, I want to create reads and do some homework afterwards what his 20% range is.

      If your metagame is small, I tend to give up this 1-2% equity edge to gain some more insight. Folding is also okay in my opinion
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      read something about stealing and callingranges try to adjust to it, easy snap call with a7s.