SNG Prop bet help

    • iamblueandurmine
      iamblueandurmine
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 130
      My friend believes he can make it into the money 70% of the time, over 3 months. Although i don't know much about SNGs and i mainly play cash, it seems like a ridiculous claim and i want to make some money out of it!

      I need to know if there is some way i can identify the % a player comes IN THE MONEY, shark scope doesn't seem to have this, but i have seen it on OPR for tournies. He believes himself to be a SNG god and i would love to prove him wrong, need stats though, anyone help a brother out? :s_cool:
  • 26 replies
    • LgWz
      LgWz
      Black
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 7,641
      Depends on what kind of sng (9man?) and the stakes. Assuming it's low stakes 9man turbo, back when I used to play $6.50s I got ITM 40.5% of the time over the 2200 games I have in my database (11.1% ROI). So yea, 70% is just sick and there's no way you can lose money in this bet =p

      Just make sure he needs to play enough games, if he plays 4 games in 3 months and cashes in 3 you're screwed!
    • ladman
      ladman
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.04.2009 Posts: 289
      Deffo not unless the sample size is small and he flukes it, no matter what level your money should be good here.
    • iamblueandurmine
      iamblueandurmine
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 130
      He plays mid stakes 9 man standard SNGs.

      His Shark scope stats thus far, pretty impressive, even got a wee shark site beside his name, but it still seems like 70% ITM is highly improbable.

      Games Plyd Av. Profit Av. Stake Av. ROI Total Profit Ability/100

      132 $16 $38 42% $2,139 88
    • ladman
      ladman
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.04.2009 Posts: 289
      thats no sample size to be scared of
    • Barin22
      Barin22
      Platinum
      Joined: 16.02.2008 Posts: 196
      U can easily bet any amount against him if he will play at least 1-2k sngs, noone can be ITM 70% of the time even on 1 dollar sngs with normal sample size. So tell me if i can bet against him too :)
    • z4tz
      z4tz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 2,043
      Can only share from my own experience. On the best rungood of my life i had 52-53% ITM, but only over 60 sngs, over a samplesize above 200 i would say its so unlikely i would bet all money i own. Just make sure we are talking about 9/10 player sngs with standard 3 places ITM. Playing DONs or such i would guess 70% could be possible on the lowest limits.
    • davidgod
      davidgod
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.12.2008 Posts: 1,675
      Firstly I am not very good at SNG
      but I think in 1$ normal sng you can achieve 70% ITM. It is quite possible, those opponents are weak.
      But if he play mutitable at the same time, I think 70% ITM is impossible even in 1$ sng

      and yes if you play don 70% is not a problem.
      And if he just play matrix game in ftp, you will see his ITM will sometimes higher than 90%, however which does not mean you will earn money even you had 90% ITM in matrix sng.

      But his profit are awesome. Maybe he is prety good at mid stake sng.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      I am 100% positive this is not positive over any decent sample size
    • AlexanderD22
      AlexanderD22
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.08.2009 Posts: 377
      Originally posted by davidgod
      Firstly I am not very good at SNG
      but I think in 1$ normal sng you can achieve 70% ITM. It is quite possible, those opponents are weak.
      But if he play mutitable at the same time, I think 70% ITM is impossible even in 1$ sng

      and yes if you play don 70% is not a problem.
      And if he just play matrix game in ftp, you will see his ITM will sometimes higher than 90%, however which does not mean you will earn money even you had 90% ITM in matrix sng.

      But his profit are awesome. Maybe he is prety good at mid stake sng.
      1$ normal SNGs = no chance. Variance is ridiculous as you get spewy donks doing stupid things in almost every single one. I'm talking about a preflop AI when you hold AA against the idiot who shoves over your 3 bet with 83o and hits 2 pair or some strange straight. Another good one is when you raise with AKo and flop comes AK4 rainbow and the donk who called the raise with J4o just can't let go of his hand after "hitting" the flop and catches another 4 on turn or river. It happens way too frequently in 1$ SNGs.

      Back to the prop bet idea, I don't play midstakes so not really sure but 70% ITM seems unrealistic. I'd book that bet in an instant.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      impossible to get 70% itm on a decent sample. ship the monies
    • CrippledMind
      CrippledMind
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 11
      Yeah, 40% sounds about right.
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      Even 40% is questionable at middle stakes in my opinion. Achievable but questionable..

      Make sure he's not talking about DON's. Maybe if you're really really good i think you can jump over 60%.
    • Pe4Ce2
      Pe4Ce2
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.12.2008 Posts: 64
      I am small stakes SnG player and i play 11+1$ turbos on FTP and i consider my self as a mid skilled player. I had ITM 38.4% with ROI 7.8 from 1k tournies there, so i think that 70% ITM is almost imposible.

      ... maybea 55 .. but 70 never ... go ahead and make a bet :tongue:
    • iamblueandurmine
      iamblueandurmine
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 130
      Originally posted by Pe4Ce2
      I am small stakes SnG player and i play 11+1$ turbos on FTP and i consider my self as a mid skilled player. I had ITM 38.4% with ROI 7.8 from 1k tournies there, so i think that 70% ITM is almost imposible.

      ... maybea 55 .. but 70 never ... go ahead and make a bet :tongue:
      Cheers for the responses, how did you need out you were in the money 38.4% of the time??? I need a way to prove it! He single tables 50-100$ SNGs.
    • Pe4Ce2
      Pe4Ce2
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.12.2008 Posts: 64
      Originally posted by iamblueandurmine
      Originally posted by Pe4Ce2
      I am small stakes SnG player and i play 11+1$ turbos on FTP and i consider my self as a mid skilled player. I had ITM 38.4% with ROI 7.8 from 1k tournies there, so i think that 70% ITM is almost imposible.

      ... maybea 55 .. but 70 never ... go ahead and make a bet :tongue:
      Cheers for the responses, how did you need out you were in the money 38.4% of the time??? I need a way to prove it! He single tables 50-100$ SNGs.
      .. my holdem manager tells me that :)
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      it's HU sngs people, mind you that
    • davidgod
      davidgod
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.12.2008 Posts: 1,675
      if you play matrix you can achieve above 90% ITM if you are good player.
      But that does not mean you can actually earn money.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      ok so heads up is a different beast, but still quite hard to achieve. defenatley possible at the low end of the market
    • iamblueandurmine
      iamblueandurmine
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 130
      Nah 9 man standard $50-100 SNGs! Holdem manager hmm none of the sites available do in the money stats?
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