[NL2-NL10] nl400 steal and river bluff

    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      BB is 20/9 1.7k hands, but calls steals at 23% (in 78 instances), his fold to CB is only 56% (67 instances).. oh and WTSD is 31%... The river bluff I think was reasonable on the scare card. His not betting says he has a weak holding.. Question is do you think this kind of player will fold if he has hit.. obviously calling a king, but would he fold something like 98 or 56 or 66-88? I think with such a wtsd he would..
      (Agf 22/26/13 flop/turn/river)
      By the way I think the delayed CB is good because A) he might fold, B) it makes the pot just big enough for a river shove that has good fold equity and is reasonably sized

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $2/$4 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $121.20
      BB:
      $400.00
      UTG1:
      $96.10
      UTG2:
      $391.20
      MP1:
      $122.40
      MP2:
      $283.00
      MP3:
      $684.70
      CO(Hero):
      $74.00
      BU:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, J.
      5 folds, Hero raises to $12.00, 2 folds, BB calls $8.00.

      Flop: ($26) 4, 9, 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($26) 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, BB calls $14.00.

      River: ($54) K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $48.00(All-In), BB folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $54.
  • 6 replies
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      i would just fold preflop, even if it is NL400, but this is just my opinion, maybe Burek2000 will say opposite, as he is playing NL400 a lot...;) ...but as you played, according his stats, i would c-bet flop. If he calls c/f...
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      I realise it's marginal but the button and sb are really tight, and I want people to see me raising very wide in late position. I'm happy to give up if I get called with no equity, miss, and the guy starts betting into me. Otherwise if the guy is playing weakly with a low wtsd I'm going to make plays on him on the later streets if the board allows me..
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Preflop I fold.

      I c/bet the flop but not the turn. We are not representing anything because of that he will call us very light.

      The River shove is good our hand looks very much like AK. He prob fold many small PP and checking behind is bad because i cant think of any hand he may be holding that is weaker than us.

      ps. the only hand he could have that we are beating is 67s.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey WildBeans,

      easy raise preflop. Although BB is a fish you have good postflop playability in position with QJ.

      On the flop I would always c-bet this board and with Q-high I would like to end the hand right here because you have only 6 outs and don't beat anything, any PP, Kx and Ax is ahead of you. If I would get called here I would just give up the hand unless hitting any later street or seeing a decent scare card.

      As played, turn card doesn't change anything and if you checked back flop I think checking back turn as well is the better choice. Besides every Ax picked up a wheeldraw and will be even more happy to call you there.

      As played, river is a perfect scare card and without any SD value shoving river is the best.

      I will leave this open for Gerv, ysessa or AK to have a look.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      Originally posted by WildBeans
      Question is do you think this kind of player will fold if he has hit.. obviously calling a king, but would he fold something like 98 or 56 or 66-88? I think with such a wtsd he would..
      (Agf 22/26/13 flop/turn/river)
      By the way I think the delayed CB is good because A) he might fold, B) it makes the pot just big enough for a river shove that has good fold equity and is reasonably sized

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $2/$4 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $121.20
      BB:
      $400.00
      UTG1:
      $96.10
      UTG2:
      $391.20
      MP1:
      $122.40
      MP2:
      $283.00
      MP3:
      $684.70
      CO(Hero):
      $74.00
      BU:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, J.
      5 folds, Hero raises to $12.00, 2 folds, BB calls $8.00.

      Flop: ($26) 4, 9, 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($26) 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, BB calls $14.00.

      River: ($54) K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $48.00(All-In), BB folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $54.
      i think the villan will bet middle pair or better on the turn. i think its ok alterntive play the way you played it because its good not to fire everytime on the flop, as u just get check raised more often. The difficulty here is, if he donks the turn here you have to fold imho which is not a good spot for u.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I've no problems folding Turn if he leads, mean you got Q high....

      Delayed is ok if you can balance it with monsters in a small metagame.

      31% WTSD is pretty stationlike since TAGs on FR have around 23-28% WTSD

      Since he obviously doesn't know what he is doing (20/9..), gaining reads about his tendencies would be a must-do.

      So since I find him like station-ish (31%), you bet potsized and you get to see the showdown for more info (you are going to lose it but if you happen to play against this dude over and over again, you got to know his play more whilst he doesn't really care about you imo)

      Though I'd not opt out shoving river entirely but I think now it's not a good thing to do.