$Ev

    • MattPhew
      MattPhew
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 32
      Hy all,

      I have a problem when I want to calculate my $EV.
      I don't really know how to calculate the percentage of 1st, 2nd, 3rd position according to my stack.

      Thanks in advance for your help. :f_thumbsup:
  • 8 replies
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      Have you read this ?

      ICM Article
    • MattPhew
      MattPhew
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 32
      Yes I have.
      I have found this: "So if Klaus has 3000 chips in a 10+1$ SnG and takes places 1/2/3 with probabilities 15/17/20%"

      But how can I get these probabilities?

      e.g. If I have 4500 when we are 6 in the sng. (All chips are 15000)
      What are my probabilities for 1/2/3?
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      i'd say that depends on your ROI :f_eek:
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      In the example given all opponents skill levels are presumed to be equal

      so in a 10-man SNG tournament with 1500 starting chips and your stack is 4500 then your % of coming first is presumed at 4500/15000 (your stack/total chips) = 30%

      To work out the other positions you need the sizes of the other stacks
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      If you want to see how it is actually worked out I did you an example using 3 players left with stack sizes 10k / 3k / 2k. You basically need to work out every possible outcome and then add the %'s up for each position

      1ST - 10k - 66.7% 2ND - 3k - 60.0% - 66.7*60.0=40.0%
      1ST - 10k - 66.7% 2ND - 2k - 40.0% - 66.7*40.0=26.7%

      1ST - 3k - 20.0% 2ND - 10k - 83.3% - 20.0*83.3=16.7%
      1ST - 3k - 20.0% 2ND - 2k - 16.7% - 20.0*16.7= 3.3%

      1ST - 2k - 13.3% 2ND - 10k - 76.9% - 13.3*76.9=10.2%
      1ST - 2k - 13.3% 2ND - 3k - 23.1% - 13.3*23.1= 3.1%



      so 10k has 66.7% / 26.9% / 6.4%
      and 3k has 20.0% / 43.1% / 36.9%
      and 2k has 13.3% / 30.0% / 56.7%
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      There's an article about the ICM in the strategy section with examplary calculations

      edit: but really don't calculate this yourself, there's software for those kind of things :)
    • z4tz
      z4tz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 2,043
      It's often good to go through the calculations a few times now and then just to see that you know what you're actually doing and using all the time. I often find that increased understanding leads to better use of the tools.
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      Originally posted by z4tz
      It's often good to go through the calculations a few times now and then just to see that you know what you're actually doing and using all the time. I often find that increased understanding leads to better use of the tools.
      Agreed. It's all very well using fancy software to do these things for you, but on the occasions when you're playing live or using a new setup where these calculations aren't available to you it's good to know the theory behind the numbers