This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by mineriva: 10.01.2010 14:49.
Ok lets see if i got this right:
CO open limps. His stats are 57/14 and with those stats imho it is save to assume it is dead money.
BTN raises. His stats are 24/17 with BU 100%. His range is therefore approx 17%.
The pot is $7.5. If we push he has to call $15.9 into a pot of $20.9. He calls 50% of the time.
By my calculation the ev of the shove is:
The 50% chance he folds multiply by the pot $7.5 = $3.75
plus our equity if he calls which is:
He calls the top 8.5% (17% *50%) and our chance of winning is 42.5% against this range (pokerstove)
So 42.5% of the time we gain an aditional $15.9 (+$6.76)
and 57.5% of the time we lose and aditional $20.9 (-$12.02)
TOTAL EV= -1.51
By my calculations we need just less than 30% chance of him calling (or a fold to 3bet of just over 70%) to make this profitable.
easy shove
BTN's range is wider than 17%, he can be isolating as much as 30% here
and a low fold to 3bet is good here since he will call with a lot of aces u dominate
if he has better than AJ (AQ+/JJ+) its a cooler imo
We assume he raises with 30% because he is CO and should be wider (we adjust his PFR accourding to his position). Lets keep to his call 3bet @ 50% and look at our equity again:
The pot is $7.5. If we push he has to call $15.9 into a pot of $20.9. He calls 50% of the time.
By my calculation the ev of the shove is:
The 50% chance he folds multiply by the pot $7.5 = $3.75
plus our equity if he calls which is:
He calls the top 15% (30% *50%) and our chance of winning is 54.7% against this range (pokerstove)
So 54.7% of the time we gain an aditional $15.9 (+$8.7)
and 46.3% of the time we lose and aditional $20.9 (-$7.2)
TOTAL EV= +5.25
If we assume his range is 30% then his call to 3bet needs only to be above 35% to make this +ev
Srry to be a bore i just want to know the math in order to understand the logic/situation
@Minerva: You shove because given the stats you are probably ahead of his hand range. Get to the gold status as soon as you can and you will discover some nice expansion to your game. In the mean time have the a look at the equilator and try to familiarise yourself with it.
@taifon: have you had a look at the reraise charts form the gold section. They are not perfect as showed in the video by Xarry but they are still pretty good and provide nice guidelines to start with. you can then addapt them to your experience and to particular reads of certain players