Staggering Play As Of Late?!?!

    • LukasGunther
      LukasGunther
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      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 12
      Hi everybody,

      I started playing poker on full tilt about 2 weeks ago. I deposited 50 canadian dollars so it came out to 44. I started out playing NL10 full ring. I did alright there but it wasn't for me. So i moved to NL10 SH. I was doing quite well there and moving up in the dollar amount. I realized that this 44 dollars was not suitable for this limit. So I moved down to NL4. There i just got torn apart. Not sure what it was but I lost like 4 buy-ins there with in a few 100 hands. So I went back to NL10 SH since I was confident in my game there. I have moved up quite well and currently have my bankroll at 110 dollars.

      My issues are with my stagnant play. It seems as though I have hit a plateau. Ill start playing a session and end up going down to 70 dollars. Then I would proceed to get it back to 100 dollars. The process has been happening over and over I just cant seem to get the consistency that I had prior. Im wondering what possible reason would cause this?

      I don't have any poker software because I am on a Mac and it is not supported, So I will link you with my Player Stats at PTR.

      http://www.pokertableratings.com/fulltilt-player-search/the+bukafax

      Thank you, Luke
  • 19 replies
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      The phenomenon you're experiencing is called variance. It's present in all poker games, and as you might have heard, SH is very swingy. You can easily lose 5 stacks and win them all back with in a single session. This alone is reason enough for you to switch down a limit until your bankroll allows you to play NL10. I'm assuming you play BSS here. 11 BI is not enough to survive SH, even on microstakes. So move down or you will go broke.

      Now, are you saying you can beat NL10, but can't beat NL4? That's just an impression you got from running bad at NL4, the players are actually much weaker.
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      Agreed, variance.

      Your bankroll isn't good enough for NL4 or NL10, I would play NL2 until for at least 20-30K hands and make sure your game is good with a consistent win rate (over a large sample), before moving onto higher limits.

      You'll very likely find yourself broke if you continue to play NL10 SH, typically SH is more difficult than full ring games due to the overall play being looser and it's harder to read your opponent's hands.
    • LukasGunther
      LukasGunther
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 12
      Yes, I do play BSS. So you are that sure if I am able to get 5.5 BB/100 at NL10 SH. I should be able to get the same if not larger rate?

      I understand what variance is, I just found it odd that the past view days that it had been the same pattern for the past 4-5 days. 20 buy-ins is what I would need to play at NL10 SH for BSS or is it higher amount of buy-ins?

      I just played some NL5. I have no clue how to get money at this limit. I get a good hand and raise like I should everyone folds. I hit a hand everyone folds. Nobody is willing to put there money in. Is there a difference to playing this over NL10?
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      Difference between NL5 and NL10 should be minimum.

      The best way is to work your way up from the lower limits and up to the higher ones.

      It's no good jumping between NL5 and NL10, you will never get used to the difference in the amount of money involved.
    • LukasGunther
      LukasGunther
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      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 12
      They are not similar at all. NL5 is the nittiest limit I have ever played. Everybody is a calling station. You think that is good. It isn't. They only call you down with the nuts. They just let the aggressive player screw himself over. Whenever I do hit a solid hand and I raise, they always fold. Everytime. Is there anyway to actually get money here?
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
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      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Does this graph look standard for 6-max?

      ^^^^ A visulisation of varriance 6-max ^^^^^

      When you run bad its not just beats, your opponents always seem to have better or never call you etc. When your running good the opposite happens. Its pritty standard tbh, just forget about it as its unproducative to get obbsesed by short term results.
    • LukasGunther
      LukasGunther
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      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 12
      I understand that its swingy and I can run bad. There is absolutely no variance for me at this level. Although 1k hand is a small sample. I am -22BB/100. That is out of hand. No matter how bad I am running it shouldn't be that low. I play very tight and these are not losses are not even from bad beats.
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by LukasGunther
      ... There is absolutely no variance for me at this level...
      Never say that out loud again if you want people to take you seriously.
    • LukasGunther
      LukasGunther
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 12
      I will say it out loud. I had not won a substantial pot at that level to justifiably say I am going through variance. What I experience at NL10, variance. NL5 is just out of hand. I feel I can safely get 90 more dollars via NL10 then NL5 to have the correct bankroll.
    • raun
      raun
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      Joined: 15.07.2007 Posts: 746
      you have to play more hands to get a real idea of where you stand on the limit. 1k is nothing.
      the downswing u have experienced at nl5 can just as easily happen on nl10 and then you will need proper brm to survive
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      Originally posted by Berzerger
      Originally posted by LukasGunther
      ... There is absolutely no variance for me at this level...
      Never say that out loud again if you want people to take you seriously.
      listen to berzeger. it is never too late.
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      Agreed 1K hands is nothing.

      I play NL5 at about 30K hands now, variance hits me every now and then so I get periodic downswings, it's perfectly normal.

      Play at very least another 20k hands before you can make any conclusions about your play, but pros will suggest at least 100k.
    • NickParkes
      NickParkes
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      Joined: 07.07.2008 Posts: 1,526
      .....OR keep playing NL10 and see what happens? :f_eek:
    • randomdonk
      randomdonk
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      Joined: 02.08.2009 Posts: 1,984
      Originally posted by LukasGunther
      I understand that its swingy and I can run bad. There is absolutely no variance for me at this level.



      i lol'd



      Originally posted by LukasGunther
      I will say it out loud. I had not won a substantial pot at that level to justifiably say I am going through variance. What I experience at NL10, variance. NL5 is just out of hand. I feel I can safely get 90 more dollars via NL10 then NL5 to have the correct bankroll.

      u obviously don't understand how this game works. do the smart thing and dont play a limit u dont have at the very least 25 buy ins for. 30-35 for sh.
    • ladman
      ladman
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      Joined: 13.04.2009 Posts: 289
      Originally posted by michaelqian
      Agreed 1K hands is nothing.

      I play NL5 at about 30K hands now, variance hits me every now and then so I get periodic downswings, it's perfectly normal.

      Play at very least another 20k hands before you can make any conclusions about your play, but pros will suggest at least 100k.
      30k hands at nl5, this dont sound right?
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
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      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Originally posted by LukasGunther
      There is absolutely no variance for me at this level. .
      LOL...Dont be so silly!
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
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      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      Originally posted by LukasGunther
      There is absolutely no variance for me at this level. .
      LOL...Dont be so silly!
      He is right. At that level poker is rigged. On higher levels there is variance.
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      quote: Originally posted by michaelqian Agreed 1K hands is nothing. I play NL5 at about 30K hands now, variance hits me every now and then so I get periodic downswings, it's perfectly normal. Play at very least another 20k hands before you can make any conclusions about your play, but pros will suggest at least 100k. 30k hands at nl5, this dont sound right?


      Why does it not sound right?
    • paranoid1974
      paranoid1974
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      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 21
      With your starting bankroll, U should be playing SSS @ NL5 or BSS @ NL2.
      If u don't understand variance, then you really need to be looking at some strategy material.
      Right now, there are hundreds of players studying and noting your play. Once they figure out your tendencies.........BLAMMO.....it's all over for u.