[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR SB Steal, villain too strong to Fire 3rd Barrel?

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BTN: $27.47
      Hero (SB): $104.08
      BB: $24.98
      UTG: $25.35
      UTG+1: $23.69
      MP: $69.10
      CO: $25.40

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 7 :club: 6 :spade:
      5 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.50) Q :club: J :heart: 5 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.00, BB calls $1

      Turn: ($3.50) 3 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2

      River: ($7.50) Q :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks

      Villain is 25/5 1.1AF on 40 hands. I don't know how much info I had on him at the time but I think he may have folded to 1 out of 3 cbets.

      Any point in firing river or is his range too strong now? That Q makes me think he can call again with a J.
  • 5 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Hi hi.

      I fold pre if villian is defending their blinds a decent amount / doesn't fold to cbets.

      Don't think it's a very good cbet spot. You pretty much have zero equity and it hits his range decently. He also won't give you much credit since it's BB vs SB. Would still bet with stuff like AT, T9, 98 :heart: etc.

      Not second barreling. Nothing that called the flop is folding, and you will have to fire a third barrel if the river blanks to fold his draws.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Disclaimer - Before reading this be sure to know I was drunk whilst typing it!

      I'm afraid I disagree with you, sorry. I'll try to explain why.

      Steal - Very Profitable given how tight villain is and how easily I can make him fold his range by firing barrels. This sort of spot I get a lot more postflop value than preflop value for sure.

      Villains range for calling steals is still quite wide, however I can get him to fold a lot of SC's, Small Pocket Pairs and Ax type hands with cbet and then get him to lay down Jx TT 99 and 88 and floats on the turn making a second barrel immensely profitable. This is NL25 after all and villains are not good at reading ranges.

      When you say it hits his range directly? No it doesn't His range for calling will include all PP's, many Suited Connectors and he has many hands like Ax Kx that will be forced to fold to a second barrel when he fails in his float against my cbet due to me firing turn.

      My Main Question here is whether to fire 3rd barrel to get busted draws to fold, I'm not sure if there are more out there than Qx type hands and who knows he can amybe even lay a weak one of those down to the river barrel.

      Btw John, You have an amazing signature, made me chuckle for sure.
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      zomg, strategy debate! : P

      Steal: You indicated he was loose and didn't fold post flop.

      Flop: If he is playing straightforward I agree somewhat. The cbet should be marginally +EV. In the games I play people will bluff raise, float, call flop/raise turn a ton here. With a hand like 76o, there isn't a lot you can do to counter these lines.

      If you think he will call the flop really wide and then fold any turn bet - then of course insta double barrel. However, he seems kind of unknown, so unless you have an amazing read allready, you don't really know what his flop call means. He could be floating with any two, he might have weak hands that will fold on the turn, or he might only have top pair and a draw. Playing a hand like this out of position with no information, you are just burning money trying to outplay villian. To be honest, this is the main reason I normally fold spots like this.

      Another problem is there aren't a lot of cards we can barrel on the turn profitably. And our hand is so weak that we always have to tripple barrel to have a chance of winning.

      And yeah, it does hit a big blind calling range well. I said decently, not directly.

      Stuff that hits:

      TT, ATs, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o: 154 cominations

      Stuff that doesn't:

      88-22, A9s-A2s, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 98s: 114 combinations

      River: Yeah I would be tripple barreling to fold draws and stubborn Jx, TT

      Signature: I only make these replies to improve my game, so I need a disclamer for when I mess things up.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Interesting points you make here. I'm probably going to re-iterate myself here but I'll try to address your points again;

      First indicator is that he is relatively loose and doesn't fold to the cbet too often on the flop, although the sample is small. This purely means that if we want to cbet we will have to fire a 2nd and/or 3rd barrel.

      I do not see anything wrong with taking the line of cbetting if we are prepared to follow through, Cbetting is only a mistake if we

      1) Only fire the flop and give up on the turn.

      2) know he takes these tricky lines you speak of a ton and likes to bluffraise flop and or turn. Floating does not concern me as he is folding those on turn to the 2nd barrel. Your games are obviously very different to mine, I am playing NL25 after all and don't think a virtual unknown will be taking lines like this :P

      From what we know about villain he falls into a group of slightly too loose, slightly passive NL25 Villains who are quite easy to abuse by stealing wide and barrelling against. From my knowledge of this player type we're not burning money by just playing OOP vs him in a spot like this.

      Although of course more info is always nice we don't always have the luxury of working with it and yes, this is about the most marginal spot I ever end up stealing with, I might not make this move if I wasn't so staggeringly over-rolled.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you get floated /raised some times there draws or made hands, so c/f that board without any good equity is fine
      once you get called I´d c/f turn, since you won´t make him fold his hand and you can´t be sure he is folding to your river barrel.