Seriously doubting poker....

    • PetterG2
      PetterG2
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 224
      Seriously, how long can a downswing last? After I started playing again after a longer break I feel like EVERYTHING is going against me. My original plan was to deposit $100 (I had a few percentages at a MTT and got $220 more) and play NL5sh and see were it went from there. I moved up to nl10 after the BR-boost from the MTT-percentages.

      I played around 50k hands with decent succsess (5bb/100). I did however, run 12-15BI under EV. I got a little bit bored of nl5sh, so I started with PLO5sh (Used to beat PLO10sh with 20bb/100 over a decent sample). Around 15k hands later I was 25 BI under EV. In frustration ("plo is unbeatable, only lucky idiots and to much variance"-thoughts) I started to play what I used to be really succsessful with around 6 months ago; turbo STT SnGs. 200 games, 15BI under EV, no thanks, I quit.

      After a two week break, I decided that NLsh should be the game I was going to focus on. I re-read strategy-articles, watched vids, reviewed sessions +++ and did a lot in order to work on my game. I did fix some serious leaks (from a HUGE non-showdown loser -> breakeven w/o effecting the showdown-winnings to much).

      The bad run didn't stop though. I am 6 stacks under EV with QQ, KK and AA this month (only 8k hands) and of the 38 KKs I've been dealt this months, 5 of them meet aces. Luckily 2 of them were to shorties. 29/42 aces only took down blinds, and 4 of them lost to lower PPs AIpre.

      I won $2,5k (incl. rb) between summer 08 to summer 09, only playing in my spare time and I played everything from NLFR to PLOsh to turbo sngs. Now nothing works out for me and I keep telling myself "it will be over soon, stop being so result-orientated". I don't think this will lat. Anyways... Im not going to complain anymore.. For some of you more experienced players; how long can I expect a doomer to last? There is no doubt that I will quit poker if this doesn't stop soon.
  • 5 replies
    • KidPokersKid
      KidPokersKid
      Global
      Joined: 27.02.2009 Posts: 653
      Originally posted by PetterG2
      I won $2,5k (incl. rb) between summer 08 to summer 09, only playing in my spare time and I played everything from NLFR to PLOsh to turbo sngs.
      Could just be that you are not as good as you think you are, and that money won was an upswing...though could also be the opposite and that you are a good player but just getting the raw end of the stick... thats why people play their best game with good BRM and try to focus on playing well and in the long run the variance isn't a big problem. If you're results oriented poker isn't for you.
    • AugustusCaesar
      AugustusCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 377
      Originally posted by PetterG2
      I started to play what I used to be really succsessful with around 6 months ago; turbo STT SnGs. 200 games, 15BI under EV, no thanks, I quit.
      As I play SNGs so I will only write something to that point .. Turbo SNGs have big variance, so you should get a serious sample (1000+ tourneys at least) .. My friend have been playing exactly right for 2000 tourneys and was break-even .. About 50BI swings are very standard in turbo SNGs .. However, there is a way to check if you played well - get SNG Wizard and check your histories .. Maybe you will find serious leaks and you can correct them .. Maybe not - If that is the case - Get a sample ;)
    • saxemephone
      saxemephone
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 84
      Originally posted by PetterG2
      turbo STT SnGs. 200 games, 15BI under EV, no thanks, I quit.


      How do you determine your EV for SnGs?
    • Divinek
      Divinek
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2009 Posts: 110
      You know a 'downswing' is the best time to work on studying your game rather than trying to just play through it
    • Grailer
      Grailer
      Global
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 321
      don't worry dude , you can be the best player in the world but you cant beat someone getting lucky.

      Unless you check to river and fold when they get their str8 with J8 vs my QQ