[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR Miss Cbet?

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      MP1: $29.24
      MP2: $18.10
      CO: $35.42
      BTN: $25.56
      SB: $25.10
      BB: $26.25
      UTG: $42.74
      Hero (UTG+1): $51.75
      UTG+2: $99.49

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with Q :club: J :club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($2.65) 2 :diamond: 8 :club: 3 :diamond: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero ??????

      MP2 is 38/16 on 82 hands and has 8 out of 9 fold to cbet.

      BB is 18/11 and has 6 out of 11 fold to cbet.

      I really dislike this spot for cbetting, but I'm wondering, could I represent a strong overpair by barrelling thrice and make him fold 99 to JJ maybe even QQ to the third barrel? (vs BB if he calls, Give up vs MP2 if he calls cbet)
  • 3 replies
    • LePokerMonster
      LePokerMonster
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.11.2008 Posts: 74
      if MP2 is a 38/18 that makes him an agressive fish and I think it's almost never +EV to cbet OOP and in a 3-way pot. MP2 will never let an overpair go (even 99) and BB is likely to call your cbet on the flop even if MP2 folds.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      c-bet with ovecards+backdoor flushdraw is not bad imo unless players really like to raise/float these boards
      I think you either take it down a lot on the flop or turn barrel
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      c-bet with ovecards+backdoor flushdraw is not bad imo unless players really like to raise/float these boards
      I think you either take it down a lot on the flop or turn barrel
      Ok, (assuming turn+river are blank or turn is X:club:) If villain has TT JJ or 99 for example do you think he will call those on turn percieving my range as containing a lot of draws and thus be able to talk himself into calling off a river barrel as well? If I'm crazy enough to barrel turn with draws he can think I'm Aggro enough to bet those busted draws on the river too.

      This would speak against making a 3rd bet river if he calls turn as I have less Fold Equity against that line of thought.