*Originally posted by howard182*

If you're going to include CO, you need to do a somewhat cleverer analysis. You need to decide on a hand range that he arrives at the flop with, decide which hands he tries to isolate you with, which he'll play in a three way pot (no need to worry about folding later as the largest stack is only twice hero's) and calculate the frequency for these given known dead cards and the distribution of UTG+2's hands, splitting those into ones he'll play for his stack and those he won't if you want (he'll be getting fairly good odds and is likely a weak player so I'd just simplify and say that he'll play all of them). Then you calculate the equity for each of those ranges and make a weighted average by the frequencies we calculated earlier.

What he means is this:

Make a whole bunch of assumptions.

eg. Fishy stack sizes deserve fishy hand-ranges.

UTG+2 open limps all hands given by Equilator in the range 7-35%, also PP's to JJ and SC's4-5 to 9-10.ie. 22-JJ, AQo, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2s, K7-KQ, K4-K6s, Q9+, Q8s, JT, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s.Not AQs.

CO cold calls A-10+, A7-A9s, K10-KQ,K9s,Q10,QJ,22-JJ.

CO will always push any PP else fold. UTG+2 will push with any made hand and any ace if CO folds and with any PP/str8 if CO pushes else he folds. We of course push.

Taking a weighted average as Howard suggests gives our EV as just over $1.

Not too surprising when you consider that this flop misses most hands.

In conclusion we can surely say that this situation is not a clear fold.