[NL2-NL10] NL 25 SSS going broke with AQ

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)      
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $4,95
      CO:
      $10,12
      UTG+2:
      $9,62

      0,10/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:club: , Q:spade:
      UTG+1 calls $0,25, UTG+2 calls $0,25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1,50, CO calls $1,50, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $1,25.

      Flop: ($5,10) 4:club: , 5:heart: , 2:spade: (3 players)
      UTG+2 bets $0,75, Hero folds, CO calls $0,75.

      Turn: ($6,60) K:spade: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, CO checks.

      River: ($6,60) 3:club: (2 players)
      UTG+2 bets $2, CO folds.

      Final Pot: $8,60

      UTG+2 bet seemed strange. I think he probably has overpair or set and he wanted to find out where he is or just get me stacked with overpair. What should I do, maybe just call or go all-in for fold equity and also I have 10 outs. if UTG+2 bet out 77 for example.
  • 19 replies
    • Topalov
      Topalov
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2006 Posts: 18
      Looks like an easy fold to me.
      Dont waste your monney.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Kaitz20!

      You definitely don't have 10 outs! You have to discount your outs at least to 7 because you can already be up against a straight or set and even your ace or queen can be dominated. It's an easy fold imo.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      I'd push because:

      These small donkbets are often a draw.

      You represented strength PF so continuing on the flop is natural and believable. With CO still to act it is more so.

      CO is under pressure from UTG+2 who may put him almost AI.

      2.5:1 effective odds assuming one caller.

      You only need 7 outs to break even even if we discount FE.

      Worse aces might chase thinking that they have 7 outs.

      Calling is no good as:

      You surrender the initiative for nought.

      Your equity will plummet after most turns possibly leaving you with a bet you cannot call.

      You may remain at a positional disadvantage.


      Folding isn't terrible but pushing is definitely EV+(a little) here.
    • CMB
      CMB
      Silver
      Joined: 17.02.2007 Posts: 6,466
      Naaaa,

      AQ is a fold anyway when playing SSS, its simply a disastrous hand. When you are lucky its a trap hand, otherwise you are lost already. If you are in position, raise 5BB and see what happens, if you get a call its check/fold.
      Seriously, there is way more money lost with this hand than mathematically even remotely explainable.

      CMB
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Sorry Nunki but this is a clear fold! You cannot push here because

      a) you did not hit anything on the flop (besides a gutshot)
      b) one opponent made a bet already (a small bet normally means a weak or strong hand -> you never know, but even with the weak hand he could call you)
      c) one opponent has to act behind you (and might have hit something)
      d) "continuing" the strength you have shown preflop isn't an option because you are up against two opponents (which is even more a vote for a fold according to the SSS)
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Puschkin81
      Sorry Nunki but this is a clear fold! You cannot push here because

      a) you did not hit anything on the flop (besides a gutshot)
      b) one opponent made a bet already (a small bet normally means a weak or strong hand -> you never know, but even with the weak hand he could call you)
      c) one opponent has to act behind you (and might have hit something)
      d) "continuing" the strength you have shown preflop isn't an option because you are up against two opponents (which is even more a vote for a fold according to the SSS)
      a) and two OC's.

      b) I have searched through a lot of my HH's using PO and found that these weak leads are nearly always draws. "People love to c/r the shortie as he so often c-bets".(NL10)

      c)You can put this guy under a ton of pressure so why not. Even if he has hit something you are not drawing dead.

      d)The SSS advocates an AI when you have only a HPSB left in your stack. Here you have 2/3PSB left but other factors in your favour.


      It's close whatever.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      It's not close. It's a fold!

      "I have searched through a lot of my HH's using PO and found that these weak leads are nearly always draws." -> that doesn't make any sense. Your sample size is way too small and how did you proceed searching for these bets? Did you search for 1/5 potsize bets???

      "You can put this guy under a ton of pressure so why not. Even if he has hit something you are not drawing dead."
      a) ton of pressure with only 2/3 potsize left in your stack? Impossible.
      b) if he hit a straight you are drawing dead, if he hit a set or two pair you are almost drawing dead

      "The SSS advocates an AI when you have only a HPSB left in your stack. Here you have 2/3PSB left" -> exactly. That's why you should fold.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Puschkin81
      It's not close. It's a fold!

      "I have searched through a lot of my HH's using PO and found that these weak leads are nearly always draws." -> that doesn't make any sense. Your sample size is way too small and how did you proceed searching for these bets? Did you search for 1/5 potsize bets???

      "You can put this guy under a ton of pressure so why not. Even if he has hit something you are not drawing dead."
      a) ton of pressure with only 2/3 potsize left in your stack? Impossible.
      b) if he hit a straight you are drawing dead, if he hit a set or two pair you are almost drawing dead

      "The SSS advocates an AI when you have only a HPSB left in your stack. Here you have 2/3PSB left" -> exactly. That's why you should fold.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
      See this threadhttp://www.pokerstrategy.org.uk/wbb_en/thread.php?threadid=6983&hilight=NL10&hilightuser=97407. I have since reviewed my play after a further 10k hands the results of which confirm these initial findings. A beysian analysis would suggest that most villains making a weak lead do not typically have a strong hand.

      Using the excellent search mask of PO I check the box to review the hands where I raise the flop. I then import these hands into the PO hand-replayer and take notes with pencil and paper. I am always curious of what lies behind a donkbet. This is how it is done.

      "You can put this guy under a ton of pressure so why not. Even if he has hit something you are not drawing dead."
      a) ton of pressure with only 2/3 potsize left in your stack? Impossible.


      Not. CO has to be very careful of calling our push with a marginal hand since the betting is re-opened and he has to contend with the threat of UTG+2 coming over the top. If CO folds then we are HU with UTG+2 whose weak lead is likely a weak hand. I should have been more explicit in my orignal post perhaps.

      b) if he hit a straight you are drawing dead, if he hit a set or two pair you are almost drawing dead


      Possibly true but this is a minor part of the villains hand-ranges (especially after the weak-lead).

      "The SSS advocates an AI when you have only a HPSB left in your stack. Here you have 2/3PSB left" -> exactly. That's why you should fold.


      Following the couple of dozen rules of the SSS my Grandmother could make a profit at the low-limit tables. As I am sure you (Pushkin) will concede though they are not optimal. I tend to think of the SSS rules merely as guidance and your last quoted remark merely as dogma.

      Thanks for the excellent work you have put into this forum. I have learnt much here and intend to continue to do so. It is the spirit of learning that compels me to induldge here.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Nunki!

      Sorry, but 10k hands is nothing and your analysis is worthless. If you have 1,000,000 hands you can make your analysis again.

      I've explained why this move is -EV, but if you want to play the hand this way and keep all the important information outside your analysis: do it. Basically you are putting UTG+2 on a bluff and want to bluff him and the other opponent (who didn't act yet) out of the pot with a 2/3 potsizebet. I promise you: that doesn't work in the long run!

      I like your attitude towards learning the game, but be careful that your own strategies don't influence the basic rules of playing NL Texas Hold'em profitably.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Puschkin81
      Hi Nunki!

      Sorry, but 10k hands is nothing and your analysis is worthless. If you have 1,000,000 hands you can make your analysis again.


      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
      If we were talking about win-rates I couln't agree more. But in this case we are not.

      However, you as a poker professional and I as professionally qualified mathematician (not just a first class degree) can probably learn something from each other.

      If you read chapter3 of "The Mathematics of Poker" by Chen and Ankenman and still believe my analysis of the donkbet to be worthless then I will gladly explain why it is not.

      In the hand in question we are also semi-bluffing.

      Thanks once again for your input.
    • Hansematz
      Hansematz
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2006 Posts: 37
      hi,
      for AI i need a winning probability about 21% (3,45/16,45) for a break even. (if both come in)
      when playing around with 'equilator' and some asumes about the opponets hand ranges, i often come about that winning ratio.
      so i dont understand why this is a clear fold, or i give utg-2 the wrong range. what range would be a good estimation for the opponents to make this a clear fold ?
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      In principle this could be quite a profitable semi-bluffing spot, CO is all but irrelevant and we could even have the best hand... except that you really have to consider what he limps in the first place, not just what he donk underbets on the flop. 66-22, A6s-A2s and 65s-32s have to be own main concern. Even if we say he never does this with a set, straight or two pair (which is incorrect in my experience at least for the set) (range 66,33,A6s-A2s,65s,43s,32s) we have only 24.5% equity and we'll be lucky if even 10% folds even or we get action from the CO. And however unlikely you may consider it, you do have to admit that it's a possibility that he has a strong holding, in which case you're nearly drawing dead and have precisely zero fold equity.

      That said, it's close and going with your line wouldn't be a big mistake.

      Hansematz: relying on CO calling is incorrect, he's shown no strength beyond calling the preflop raise.

      EDIT: oh, forgot 76s, which makes it closer.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Here is my Equilator result:

      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 132.152.741 games processed in 12:26 minutes.

      Board: 5h 4c 2s

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      UTG+2: 53,798% 50,872% 7,206% 41,923% 22-TT, A6, A5, A4, A3, 65s, 54s
      Hero..: 17,059% 12,882% 9,708% 77,410% AQo
      CO....: 29,143% 24,964% 9,711% 65,324% 22-JJ, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s


      btw: I like this discussion although I'm really convinced that it is a fold :D
    • Hansematz
      Hansematz
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2006 Posts: 37
      hm, ok. i didnt put in small suited connectors. in that case its a clear fold. thx.
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      If you're going to include CO, you need to do a somewhat cleverer analysis. You need to decide on a hand range that he arrives at the flop with, decide which hands he tries to isolate you with, which he'll play in a three way pot (no need to worry about folding later as the largest stack is only twice hero's) and calculate the frequency for these given known dead cards and the distribution of UTG+2's hands, splitting those into ones he'll play for his stack and those he won't if you want (he'll be getting fairly good odds and is likely a weak player so I'd just simplify and say that he'll play all of them). Then you calculate the equity for each of those ranges and make a weighted average by the frequencies we calculated earlier.

      Simply pretending that he goes all the way with 22-JJ, AQ-A2, QJs-43s isn't useful, and I really, really think that overpairs other than 66 are not played like this by UTG+2 often enough to even include in his range. Why no JJ anyway? Plenty of players will limp JJ there. (Suited connectors with a 3 (32s doesn't really deserve to be called a sc but many amateurs are oblivious of that) also really have to be included I think, they're a strong candidate for this play, and unsuited small aces largely discounted because it takes a very weak player indeed to be playing them from early positions and then to a raise. UTG+2 may be such a player more likely not, giving them full weight isn't right.)
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      One point that hasn't been mentioned that I though was important is that you really can't count your gutshot outs because you are drawing to the idiot end of the straight. If a trey comes down, any 6 has you beat.

      Drawing to the bad end of a gutshot with two of the cards in hand (say A2 with a board of 45x) is a bad idea...doing it with only one of the cards in the hole is even worse.

      I fully agree with Puschkin that it is a 100% clear fold. Absolutely no fold equity with a little over half the pot size left in your stack after UTG+2's bet.

      IMHO,
      Kknight

      P.S. - Howard, I saw your reply in the New Member forum...I did see the mention of discounting the outs above, I just felt it needed to be elaborated on...
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by howard182
      If you're going to include CO, you need to do a somewhat cleverer analysis. You need to decide on a hand range that he arrives at the flop with, decide which hands he tries to isolate you with, which he'll play in a three way pot (no need to worry about folding later as the largest stack is only twice hero's) and calculate the frequency for these given known dead cards and the distribution of UTG+2's hands, splitting those into ones he'll play for his stack and those he won't if you want (he'll be getting fairly good odds and is likely a weak player so I'd just simplify and say that he'll play all of them). Then you calculate the equity for each of those ranges and make a weighted average by the frequencies we calculated earlier.

      What he means is this:

      Make a whole bunch of assumptions.

      eg. Fishy stack sizes deserve fishy hand-ranges.

      UTG+2 open limps all hands given by Equilator in the range 7-35%, also PP's to JJ and SC's4-5 to 9-10.ie. 22-JJ, AQo, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2s, K7-KQ, K4-K6s, Q9+, Q8s, JT, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s.Not AQs.

      CO cold calls A-10+, A7-A9s, K10-KQ,K9s,Q10,QJ,22-JJ.

      CO will always push any PP else fold. UTG+2 will push with any made hand and any ace if CO folds and with any PP/str8 if CO pushes else he folds. We of course push.

      Taking a weighted average as Howard suggests gives our EV as just over $1.

      Not too surprising when you consider that this flop misses most hands.

      In conclusion we can surely say that this situation is not a clear fold.
    • primorac
      primorac
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2007 Posts: 12,414
      I push that all day long. :)
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      It doesn't really matter what to do here, the spot is obviously marginal.
      I guess I would fold against unknown, unless i need a showdown information