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Hold 'Em Manager $EV problem

    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      How the hell does HEM figure that this hand has -$1.52 EV ??

      Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (9 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop | saw showdown

      UTG+1 ($2.34)
      MP1 ($1.09)
      MP2 ($4.07)
      MP3 ($4.04)
      Hero (CO) ($0.80)
      Button ($0.72)
      SB ($1.44)
      BB ($5.71)
      UTG ($1.42)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, K
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.04, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.04, Hero (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB calls $0.02, BB checks

      Flop: ($0.20) 8, K, 5 (5 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.20, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.56, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.52, Hero raises to $0.76 (All-In), BB calls $0.20, MP3 calls $0.20

      Turn: ($2.48) 8 (3 players, 1 all-in)
      BB checks, MP3 checks

      River: ($2.48) 3 (3 players, 1 all-in)
      BB checks, MP3 checks

      Total pot: $2.48

      Results:
      BB didn't show (Muck - Q 5)
      MP3 didn't show (Muck - 6 7)
      Hero had 8, K (full house, eights over Kings).
      Outcome: Hero won $2.32

      The flop is where the allin happened and at this point I'm 46% to win the hand. I win $1.52 and the EV is -$1.52, could someone help, thanks in advance.
  • 9 replies
    • netsrak
      netsrak
      Gold
      Joined: 11.03.2006 Posts: 37,431
      The calculations are made when nobody is able to make any more actions and 2 or more people are all-in.
      In your example this is not the flop.
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      In my example this is never then ?

      So should the EV diff not be $0.00 ?
    • netsrak
      netsrak
      Gold
      Joined: 11.03.2006 Posts: 37,431
      I think you are talking about $EV Diff. Your EV was 0, you won 1.52$ => EV Diff = -1.52$

      http://www.holdemmanager.net/faq/afmviewfaq.aspx?faqid=68
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      A quote from that link

      "EV $ Diff is displayed as minus when you win more than you should."

      Don't get me wrong I understand how you are saying this value is worked out, I just disagree with it. I got my money in with the best of it and my hand held up, I don't see this as winning more "than I should". Thanks for your help anyway.

      nibbana
    • Octhellior
      Octhellior
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 108
      What's there to disagree with? If on average you're going to be break-even in a spot like that, and you happen to win $1.52 one time, isn't it logical that the $EV difference is -$1.52 then?
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      46% of the time I win $1.52 and 64% of the time I lose $0.80c how do you figure that on average I will break even ?
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      When you got you're money in you had 43% equity in the pot. .43 * $2.48 = $1.06, you won $2.48 (excluding rake) so you're EV$ should be 1.06-2.48 = -1.42. Not sure if my calcs are completely correct but I think the point is you weren't certain to win the hand so you ran above EV becuase you won. Also, you're more than breakeven here. 80c for $1.06 equity is +EV, not that you knew their exact holdings at the time though...
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      Thankyou Gunflavoured this pretty much hits the nail on the head. Apart from the $1.06-$2.48 part. This should be -$2.32 (after rake is taken from the pot) So the actual EV is -$1.26.

      My point is not whether it was a good/correct play but that the $EV calculation is wrong and not that I'm particularly mithered if the EV is out by $0.26 on one occasion, but that over 10k, 20k, 30k hands the EV line must get more and more innacurate...

      Thanks for contributing
    • netsrak
      netsrak
      Gold
      Joined: 11.03.2006 Posts: 37,431
      This EV wrong discussion was held a lot of times before.
      Holdemmanager is aware of this and will add some other EV calculations in future versions but at the moment this is how it works.