[NL2-NL10] nl25 bss - KK against aggressive player

    • x37llnoise
      x37llnoise
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.09.2006 Posts: 314
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)   
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $29.08
      Hero:
      $25.88

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , K:club:
      3 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $0.75.

      Flop: ($2.00) 8:diamond: , 8:spade: , Q:club: (2 players)
      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2.00.

      Turn: ($6.00) 3:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $4, Hero calls $4.00.

      River: ($14.00) A:spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $6, Hero calls $6.00.

      Final Pot: $26.00

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      SB shows [ 5s, Ah ] two pairs, Aces and Eights
      Hero shows [ Kh, Kc ] two pairs, Kings and Eights
      SB wins $24.70 USD with two pairs, Aces and Eights.


      how do you play that?
      the villain was loose-aggressive, so i decided to let him bet into me...

      in retrospect, i guess raising the turn is the better play...

      the call on the river is bad..

      (btw how do i get text grab'em to display the poker ace hud stats?)
  • 11 replies
    • MMa7
      MMa7
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2007 Posts: 75
      Raise on the flop to ~8$, btw don't try not posting the results as you might get some results oriented answers.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      A lot of bad LAG's will bet any scary board they miss but check when they hit. With your reads I like your line here. You can't fold the river versus this guy. NH.
    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      I d definately raise here on the flop, or at least the turn. You shouldnt be afraid of anything in that flop , no draws of any kind, and why would he play his trips like that ? The call on the river is fine btw.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by undercover82
      You shouldnt be afraid of anything in that flop , no draws of any kind, and why would he play his trips like that ?
      Exactly. So why raise versus some over-aggro villain who will happily bluff off his chips to you. (Especially in a BvB situation).
    • MMa7
      MMa7
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.02.2007 Posts: 75
      So why raise versus some over-aggro villain who will happily bluff off his chips to you.


      a) because you wanna play for stacks
      b) because if he has the queen he's going to pay it anyway and if you don't raise you're not getting his stack
      c) if he's on air he will likely stop on the turn or river if he doesn't improve
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by MMa7
      So why raise versus some over-aggro villain who will happily bluff off his chips to you.


      a) because you wanna play for stacks
      b) because if he has the queen he's going to pay it anyway and if you don't raise you're not getting his stack
      c) if he's on air he will likely stop on the turn or river if he doesn't improve
      If you are sure that villain will call off his stack with some ragged Q then raising is fine.

      Depending upon your image, villain could well fold as soon as you raise the flop. Why slow him down when the biggest part of his range here is a stone-cold-bluff. Raise him after he fires that third barrel on the river.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Originally posted by MMa7
      So why raise versus some over-aggro villain who will happily bluff off his chips to you.


      a) because you wanna play for stacks
      b) because if he has the queen he's going to pay it anyway and if you don't raise you're not getting his stack
      c) if he's on air he will likely stop on the turn or river if he doesn't improve
      #2

      "Play big pots with big hands and small pots with small hands!" Raise the flop and raise the turn. On these limits you will get paid off anyway. Slowplay is definitely the wrong decision here because you only play a small pot and if an ace comes up you don't know what you are up against.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      "Play big pots with big hands and small pots with small hands!" Raise the flop and raise the turn. On these limits you will get paid off anyway. Slowplay is definitely the wrong decision here because you only play a small pot and if an ace comes up you don't know what you are up against.
      This is simply wrong. Although our OP is a monster HU, raising versus this villain early in the hand simply encourages him to play his hand correctly.

      Let's consider for a moment villain's likely holdings here and how he might play each of them if we decide to jam the flop.

      If villain holds 8-x then villain is going to stack us about 90% of the time since he also jams.

      If villain holds Q-x then we are going to stack him 90% of the time since he also jams.

      If villain is on a stone cold bluff then he will probably fold and we make no more money from this part of his range.

      Some further assumptions need to be made. These assumptions are by no means correct but are intended to be utilized in order to gain some insight into how our betting decisions might impinge upon our EV.

      Out of the 1225 starting hand combinations possible for villain PF assume he raises with 500, limps with 500 and folds the remainder. Let's further assume that the raising hands include all A-x's and all PP's; that the limping hands include Q-2 to Q-7 (and no other Q's) and 8-5 to 8-T (and no other 8's). ie. Villain limps "72 possible Q's" and"48 possible 8's". Assume 100BB effective stacks and that villain will bluff with "N" of his 380 other possible hands (ie. non-Q non 8).

      Our EV=1/(N+120) *[N*$4 + 72*$21 - 48*$19]

      If Villain is determined to bluff N=380 and our EV=$4.24 (villain folds flop)

      If villain never bluffs then N=0 and our EV=$5

      Now suppose villain bets $6 on the turn we call and villain bets $4 on the river and we raise AI and are only called by Q-x or 8-x hands then our EV is as follows:

      Our EV=1/(N+120) *[N*$14 + 72*$21 - 48*$19]

      If Villain is determined to bluff N=380 and our EV=$11.84

      If villain never bluffs then N=0 and our EV=$5 once again

      Suppose in a worst case scenario villain could be semi-bluffing with a gutshot (he might also have T-9/J-9) then our EV is as follows:

      Our EV=1/(N+152) *[N*$14 + 72*$21 - 48*$19-32*$19]

      If Villain is determined to bluff N=348 and our EV=$9.73 assuming we are only called by straights,Q-x or 8-x hands.

      Furthermore, even if villain is good enough to fold Q-x hands on the river to our AI we only lose about $1 of our EV.

      It's not often that it is right to slowplay but here is one situation where it most assuredly is given x37llnoise's read. NH sir, I like your line.

      BTW, the above is not meant in any way to be a complete solution to OP's hand but more of an illustration of the utility of "The Fundamental Theorem of Poker." Also note that our EV goes way up yet again if villain was to make a decent sized river-bluff.
    • gutshotstraightdraw
      gutshotstraightdraw
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2007 Posts: 112
      LOL! Are you drunk? Keep slowplaying and losing value. Your calculations are ridiculous because they are only based on the opponents bluff. Even the 1225 starting hand combinations are nonsense.
      Read the strategy articles and don't slowplay here because

      "Play big pots with big hands and small pots with small hands!" Raise the flop and raise the turn. On these limits you will get paid off anyway. Slowplay is definitely the wrong decision here because you only play a small pot and if an ace comes up you don't know what you are up against.
      this is completely right!
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      EV=1/(N+152) *[N*$14 + 72*$21 - 48*$19-32*$19]


      This should be

      EV=1/(N+152) *[N*$14 + 72*$21 - 48*$19-32*$19*16%]

      which of course only increases our EV.

      To clear up any possible confusion, if villain will never fire a second barrel then slowplaying will never be correct and we of course jam the flop+turn.

      Question: Assuming villain either bluffed, semi-bluffed the flop with one of the two possible gutshots or value betted the Q-x, 8-x hands as previously described (the gutshots being part of the 500 limping hands) then with which frequency does the villain have to fire a second barrell of $6 on the turn to make slowplaying correct? It is assumed that this villain would fold to a flop raise if he did not hold Q-x/8-x.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Nunki
      EV=1/(N+152) *[N*$14 + 72*$21 - 48*$19-32*$19]


      This should be

      EV=1/(N+152) *[N*$14 + 72*$21 - 48*$19-32*$19*16%]

      which of course only increases our EV.

      To clear up any possible confusion, if villain will never fire a second barrel then slowplaying will never be correct and we of course jam the flop+turn.

      Question: Assuming villain either bluffed, semi-bluffed the flop with one of the two possible gutshots or value betted the Q-x, 8-x hands as previously described (the gutshots being part of the 500 limping hands) then with which frequency does the villain have to fire a second barrell of $6 on the turn to make slowplaying correct? It is assumed that this villain would fold to a flop raise if he did not hold Q-x/8-x.
      Excuse the mis-click as I intended to post the answer directly. The answer
      is about 22%.

      This could be worth knowing in BvB battles on WA/WB boards in particular.

      Your calculations are ridiculous because they are only based on the opponents bluff. Even the 1225 starting hand combinations are nonsense.


      My calculations are based on the possibility of villain bluffing. This is not ridiculous unless you know a priori that this villain never bluffs.

      If we hold two cards there are 1225 starting hand combinations for our opponent.


      Gutshot, I hope this makes things more clear. And BTW, I would be astonished if my post did not contain a minor error or two. Thanks for drawing my attention to the first.