[NL2-NL10] AA going broke

    • Termis
      Termis
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.07.2007 Posts: 149
      Is it fine here to go broke? Player is quite tight, so I was hoping of an overpair after he called my 3bet on this board.


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG2:
      $5.21
      Hero:
      $10.30

      0.02/0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.70 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:club: , A:diamond:
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 raises to $0.16, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.56, 2 folds, UTG2 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.18) 2:diamond: , T:heart: , 5:club: (2 players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero bets $0.84, UTG2 calls $0.84.

      Turn: ($2.86) 8:club: (2 players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero bets $2.04, UTG2 raises to $3.81 (All-In), Hero calls $1.77.

      River: ($10.48) J:heart: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $10.48

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of aces (Ac Ad)
      UTG2 shows three of a kind, tens (Tc Ts)

      UTG2 wins with three of a kind, tens (Tc Ts)
  • 4 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Yes. Nh. His range is going to be like TT-QQ, maybe KK that he slowplayed. You are way ahead most of the time.
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      I don't think you are ahead most of the time, I'll say about 50% of the time.

      He does look very tight from his stats, hands that are in his range preflop would be TT, JJ and QQ.

      The c/c on flop and c/r on turn does look indeed like TT, which I thought he had before I looked at the results.

      With QQ and JJ a tight player would normally bet out on that kind of flop and probably on the turn, it definitely looked like he was slowplaying.

      Anyway I would play the same way you did, you can't fold the turn since the pot is already too big. I would probably raise preflop to about 0.64, but that wouldn't make much of a difference.
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Originally posted by michaelqian
      I don't think you are ahead most of the time, I'll say about 50% of the time.

      He does look very tight from his stats, hands that are in his range preflop would be TT, JJ and QQ.

      The c/c on flop and c/r on turn does look indeed like TT, which I thought he had before I looked at the results.

      With QQ and JJ a tight player would normally bet out on that kind of flop and probably on the turn, it definitely looked like he was slowplaying.

      Anyway I would play the same way you did, you can't fold the turn since the pot is already too big. I would probably raise preflop to about 0.64, but that wouldn't make much of a difference.
      Or he has QQ, JJ and just shoves the turn because he's going to be pot committed and doesn't want to see an A, K on the river. Betting out QQ, and JJ here you loose a lot of value from bluffs, so I think most players c/c or c/r.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Since it's nl4 it's probably safe to assume QQ-JJ might take an alternate line some percentage of the time, not every tag is well versed in the art of letting people bluff out their air, some of them definitely overvalue the concept of protection.

      That being said i don't think it changes the fact that we have to go with our hand in that situation, there is too much money in the pot to do anything else when it's possible for our opponent to have a worse overpair.

      Since the board is so dry i'd probably start by c-betting smaller like 1/2 because we can't get the money in in 2 streets anyway unless we get shoved on, and he's so tight he might even decide to make some weak folds against a very strong line. If we size our bets that way, it's unlikely a 11/6 will check/shove a worse hand on us on the turn because he won't be nearly as pot committed, so with the right reads we might get away against a shove and shove the river ourselves if he just calls the turn. We still have to be decently sure about his turn shoving range to even consider folding tho.


      Hope it helps.