[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR KQ versus River Shove.

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      Hero (CO): $26.05
      BTN: $6.62
      SB: $26.94
      BB: $17.29
      UTG: $29.97
      UTG+1: $25.35
      UTG+2: $5.35
      MP1: $48.79
      MP2: $27.88

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q :club: K :heart:
      3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 6 :spade: 7 :spade: 2 :heart: (2 players)
      MP1 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.35) K :diamond: (2 players)
      MP1 bets $3.00, Hero calls $3

      River: ($10.35) A :heart: (2 players)
      MP1 bets $43.79, Hero folds

      Villain is 17/17 on 90 hands. He has 8.0AF so far with extremely high aggression frequencies. River he shoves effective twice potsize so he requires to win 67% of the time to make this play as a bluff effective.

      I think his perception of my range for calling but not raising turn includes= TT, (JJ and QQ) possibly 99, KQ, KJ, and likely not AK but its possible. As he has probably concluded I am an agressive player I would have raised a set by this point so he should actually have no problem in shoving river here to guarantee a fold. I am likely calling with KQ or KJ to a normal sized riverbet because it looks so much like a bluff with that A on the board but will obviously fold to a 2x effective river shove.

      That is why I think its an excellent spot for him to shove River as a bluff but not to bet 2x potsize as a valuebet in this spot, so If I knew he was a thinking player as well as being super aggro I would like a call....


      However, this is NL25 and I do not think many opponents are capable of this level of thinking, I think this river-shove is more likely to be a set, double barrelled Ax that got lucky on river or some sort of two-pair overplaying itself so I have to find a fold.


      What do you think?
  • 3 replies
    • donmac
      donmac
      Silver
      Joined: 12.02.2009 Posts: 493
      i would reraise the flop till 3$. It seems to be standart cbet from villain and the board did not seem to match him good.
      if play continued i would b/f on turn and c/c on river
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Hey!

      I'm not such a great fan of floating such a spot, because you're repping a draw or a small pair like 87 or 99. The problem for this is that if something like a J comes on the turn and he checks to you, you can't credibly represent a value bet, because your range won't be valuebetting in that spot.
      Bluff raising is a lot more credible and you leave your opponent in a crappy spot even if he has something like TT.

      I would avoid bluffing in NL25 though :D You gotta be really sure what kind of opponent you're dealing with. Remember that even most NL25 players haven't really learned to fold something like an overpair yet.

      As played, I'd definitely fold on the river. Even in higher limits, you're not likely to see somebody overbet jam without the nuts ;)

      cheers
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I agree that float spot is kind of bad. Can't remember why I did it, but I know flop call was based on a read for sure.

      I am not raising flop because as you said villains on NL25 find it hard to lay down their hands. I found that out already trying to represent sets versus relative unknowns. It definitely seems to be best to limit your bluffs to villains you have a lot of history on.