[NL20-NL50] Nl25 FR AQ TP versus FlopRaise.

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $47.70
      SB: $37.55
      BB: $26.92
      UTG: $23.30
      UTG+1: $10.31
      Hero (MP1): $48.21
      MP2: $55.13

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with A :spade: Q :heart:
      UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 5 folds, UTG calls $1

      Flop: ($2.85) A :heart: 9 :diamond: 8 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.25, UTG raises to $10, Hero folds

      Villain is 26/0 on 65 hands. 1 AF.

      Against a regular 16/12 or 18/14 opponent I would probably just shove this flop because he is likely to have Flush Draw, KJs KQs, JTs etc and would have raised all the holecards that currently beat me preflop (and not limp/called 98 or A9 etc). However this guy is 26/0 so far and hasn't raised preflop once. I thus conclude his range includes more Sets than a standard players one and even AK and A9. I think I have to let this one go.

      Not sure I'd actually be able to even shove this hand against an aggressive reg though despite what I think is a good hand range evaluation of his flop check/raise. Sometimes I just let go what feel like high variance spots like this.

      anyway, do you guys agree on my analysis of this spot?
  • 2 replies
    • donmac
      Joined: 12.02.2009 Posts: 493
      You played ok.
      Cbet was ok and fold in this situation was ok.
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992

      Against this seemingly super passive player, I like your line.
      However, on your range analysis for regs: I think if a reg is l/c KJs or KQs, he could easily be l/c something like 99 or 98s. Even in the pokerstrategy starting hands chart, it is advised to just limp such hands and call a raise following the call20 rule.
      Another consideration: is he really gonna c/r a flush draw such as KQs? He has no overcards at all, he's playing for his flush outs only. I think people are a lot more likely to c/r a FD with overcards and often play other draws for a c/c.