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[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR JJ flopped set facing turnraise on 3rd spade.

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
      The Official Hand History Converter

      UTG+2: $25.00
      Hero (MP1): $63.98
      MP2: $65.49
      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $11.41
      SB: $64.61
      BB: $33.95
      UTG: $31.79
      UTG+1: $50.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with J :heart: J :club:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds

      Flop: ($2.35) 5 :heart: J :spade: Q :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.75, CO calls $1.75

      Turn: ($5.85) A :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.00, CO raises to $11, Hero folds

      Villain is 29/4 with 2.0 AF but only 25 hands.

      At first I think call turn for implieds on river if I FH it, but I'm not so sure. I'm calling $7 for a $21 pot and additional $10 on river if I hit and he shoves it in. Thats $7 to win $31 which doesn't even feel like I'm getting payed off enough implieds wise if I'm calling turn for FH equity. This is why I fold.

      Am I right to fold turn for this reason?
  • 3 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Edit: Ignore my noob reply.
    • donmac
      Joined: 12.02.2009 Posts: 493
      i would call on turn and if on river would not seen one more spade would shove. Of couse if i would get FH or quads on river - there would be shove. you still had 10 outs and have made set, so in this situasion i would be trying to get all-in.
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Hey guys

      I think we should actually be shipping it on the turn. There aren't so many flush combos he can have here, just because most broadways are blocked and all the Ax flushes are also blocked. Sometimes he'll have QJ slowplayed that now gets scared of the flush and raises. He'll also have AJ, AQ, A5.

      Check out our equity vs that range:

      Board: 5h Js Qs As

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 49.495% 49.49% 00.00% 980 0.00 { JcJh }
      Hand 1: 50.505% 50.51% 00.00% 1000 0.00 { 55, AQs-AJs, A5s, KTs, Ks9s, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AQo-AJo, KTo }

      And I think that's a tight range. Sometimes he'll just have something like AT that floated or something like KQ with the K :spade: .

      We can't fold with so much equity here and I don't like calling because there are many cards that could kill the action on the river. So just ship it over his turn raise :]