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[NL20-NL50] Nl50 Sh Aa

    • VisuLatvijai
      Joined: 15.02.2007 Posts: 255
      Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from

      Hero (MP) ($48.70)
      Button ($23.57)
      BB ($48.95) VPIP: 23, PFR:16, 3Bet: 8, Fold to steal: 76, AF: 3,7, WTSD: 27, Check/Raise Flop: 2%(1/46), Hands:1261
      SB ($64.73)
      UTG ($53.15)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A
      1 fold, Hero bets $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75

      Flop: ($3.75) J, 6, 9 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $8.50, Hero calls $8.50

      Turn: ($20.75) 9 (2 players)
      BB bets $10.37, Hero calls $10.37

      River: ($41.49) 4 (2 players)
      BB bets $20, Hero folds

      Total pot: $41.49 | Rake: $2.05
  • 4 replies
    • maya1984
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741

      his c/r % really sucks for us. It seems that he only c/r monsters.
      Turn is a good card, it's less likely he has a set. I wouldn't raise it even if it looks like a blocker bet since his calling range has us totally crashed.
      The river bet looks like a bagging vbet.
      Judging his 3betting range I doubt he is playing QQ|KK this way unless you are a nit.Very few nl50 regs will take this line with a bluff, further more the river is blank.
      That leave us with mostly with bouts....
      I wouldn't call it with out any history and good reason to believe he will show up with a bluff.
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992

      This hand is pretty interesting.

      I don't think we can call turn and fold on a blank river. If we call his c/r and call his turn barrel, we believe he has bluffs/semi-bluffs in his range. And if he has bluffs/semi-bluffs in his range, we must bluff catch a blank river. I think calling turn and folding a blank river is throwing money away.

      The question however is if he's ever bluffing or semi-bluffing here. His flop c/r is so low, but then again the turn makes it so less likely he has a monster. I guess he's 3betting JJ a certain amount of the time pre-flop. So his value range is super narrow here. Even though his c/r % is small, it could easily not be turstworthy over 46 sample hands. The guy is 23/16 with a high AF. He can certainly c/r as a semi-bluff at least.
      Considering all that, I think calling turn is the correct play, but then we must call river. ;)

    • mrxLT
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 435
      If we believe he got semi-bluffs in his range isnt better to ship it directly on the flop?
      I mean, whats our plan on the tun if we just call flop.
      Lets say its a scare card and he fires again we fold. But theres lot of scare cards so will be folding alot.
      What about blank and he fires again? 2c and he bets 1/2 pot. Call turn call blank river? Call turn, fold on scare river card. Again we folding alot.
      I would decide if i want to continue on the flop. Either fold or 3bet. Leak?
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      I don't like shipping it directly on the flop. It's true, there are many scare cards. The problem however is that on such a flop, when the money goes in, we have shitty equity vs his overall range.

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 40.766% 40.77% 00.00% 9686 0.00 { AdAh }
      Hand 1: 59.234% 59.23% 00.00% 14074 0.00 { JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 99, 66, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QTs, JsTs, 87s }

      I put only 1/2 of the JJ combos, because I believe he'll be 3betting them at least some % of the time pre-flop.

      Now, there are a bunch of cards we don't want to see on the turn, true. But the truh is that just calling the flop allows us to play the turn pretty well. If a :spade: hits for example, our equity vs his range diminishes greatly and we can fold to a turn bet:

      Board: Jh 6s 9s 2s

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 21.875% 21.88% 00.00% 231 0.00 { AdAh }
      Hand 1: 78.125% 78.13% 00.00% 825 0.00 { JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 99, 66, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QTs, JsTs, 87s }

      If a total blank comes on the other hand, our equity increases (although it's still not so great):

      Board: Jh 6s 9s 2d

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 51.799% 51.80% 00.00% 547 0.00 { AdAh }
      Hand 1: 48.201% 48.20% 00.00% 509 0.00 { JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 99, 66, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QTs, JsTs, 87s }

      On this kind of spot where our equity isn't that great vs his overall range, it's important that we pot control. Shoving flop might be +EV, but we can make better decisions after seeing the turn.

      That's also not counting the times that villain is c/r something like KQ without the FD. He'll fold all these hands that have very crappy equity against us if we shove flop, but we can still maybe get a couple of bluffs out of him on turn and river.

      On this specific turn our equity increases a lot:

      Board: Jh 6s 9s 9c

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 58.161% 58.16% 00.00% 563 0.00 { AdAh }
      Hand 1: 41.839% 41.84% 00.00% 405 0.00 { JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 99, 66, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QTs, JsTs, 87s }

      After all these considerations, I actually start liking the idea of jamming turn. Villain has commited quite a few of his chips already and maybe he feels like he's commited with something like AsTs or KsJs, thinking he still has his overcards outs, when in reality he doesn't. If we call turn again, we'll be left in a crappy situation if a scary card comes and villain shoves for example.

      So I think I actually like calling flop and shoving blank turn.