Originally posted by Unforeseen99
Originally posted by caltabiano
Hey!
We shouldn't c/r this hand on the river. It's not strong enough for such a move. There are many hands that can beat us now, such as a boat and a backdoor flush. If we c/r the river, it's gonna be hard to get called by a worse hand than ours.
On the other hand, if we just straight out bet, we can get called by many worse hands. So I'd just bet the river.
Also, I'd make the turn bet a bit bigger. $1.70 should be good.
Cheers
What if the river was a blank, say 7h, would you still just bet it?
Hmmm, good question. Without reads, it's pretty hard to be sure such a move will have a higher expected value than just betting. It's really hard to try a c/r here because there won't be any flopped busted draws. JT has some showdown value now and just checks behind. So I don't think we get anything more by c/r. He'll bet all his 2 pair or better, but against these hands we can just overbet jam and we'll get called anyway.
On the other hand, if he has something a bit marginal like Q9, he'll check back pretty often. So I might be tempted to overbet jam on a blank river, even readless just because I expect most players to be super fishy and call any Q.