[NL2-NL10] NL10 Q6 Rush

    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $9.26
      MP3:
      $5.43
      CO:
      $10.69
      BU:
      $13.86
      SB:
      $10.00
      BB(Hero):
      $11.44
      UTG1:
      $3.20
      UTG2:
      $17.05
      MP1:
      $14.26


      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, 6.
      6 folds, BU calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.3) 7, Q, 6 (3 players)
      SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.10, BU folds, SB raises to $9.90, Hero calls $8.80.

      Turn: ($20.1) T (2 players)


      River: ($20.1) 8 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $20.1.
  • 1 reply
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Hey!

      I think this might be a bit overplayed. Unless villain is very spewy, his range here will consist huge draws (nut flush draw or better) and 2P or better.
      And even if he's going broke with something like AQ, he still has 30% equity against us.
      Besides, I find it unlikely that he's going broke with something like AQ, because if he's that aggressive, he's also aggressive enough to raise it pre-flop.
      He could have something like slowplayed AA or KK, but again that's not extremely likely. And then if he has KK-AA, he might very well hold QQ also. So here's how your equity looks against a pretty wide range for this situation:

      Board: Qs 7h 6h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 58.349% 54.99% 03.36% 35388 2159.50 { Qc6d }
      Hand 1: 41.651% 38.30% 03.36% 24643 2159.50 { QQ+, 77-66, AhKh, AQs, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, Q7s-Q6s, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h5h, 76s, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, AQo, KQo, Q7o-Q6o, 76o }

      I'm considering here that he wouldn't have raised his premium hands pre-flop and that he's going broke with KQ and AQ. In this case we have pretty decent equity.
      However, like I said, it's unlikely that he's gonna have these holdings. So, a much better guess woul be this:


      Board: Qs 7h 6h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 49.211% 43.10% 06.11% 14507 2057.50 { Qc6d }
      Hand 1: 50.789% 44.68% 06.11% 15038 2057.50 { 77-66, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, Q7s-Q6s, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h5h, 76s, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, Q7o-Q6o, 76o }

      We have here nut flush draws up to A9, all possible 2 pairs and sets and also all the bigger draws (12+ outs).

      See how our equity doesn't look so hot anymore?

      And we don't know how he plays his draws, so maybe he only has 2 pair or better here:

      Board: Qs 7h 6h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 41.818% 31.47% 10.35% 6231 2049.00 { Qc6d }
      Hand 1: 58.182% 47.83% 10.35% 9471 2049.00 { 77-66, Q7s-Q6s, 76s, Q7o-Q6o, 76o }


      Calling his shove might be slightly +EV, but it might also be a big mistake. So I actually like the idea of folding, unless I know my opponent is very spewy and will be shoving super light here.

      If we had top 2 pair, I'd call all day long =)

      Cheers