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[NL2-NL10] AK - missed flop

    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Hi there,

      The hand was played @ Cake so i had no stats on Villan. I also had no notes on him.

      Seat 0 is the button
      Seat 1: CakeSeat1 ( $15.63 USD )
      Seat 2: CakeSeat2 ( $3.27 USD )
      Seat 3: CakeSeat3 ( $9.64 USD )
      Seat 4: CakeSeat4 ( $2.48 USD )
      Seat 5: Hero ( $1.99 USD )
      Seat 8: CakeSeat8 ( $4.06 USD )
      Seat 9: CakeSeat9 ( $11.67 USD )
      Seat 10: CakeSeat10 ( $2.00 USD )
      CakeSeat8 posts small blind [$0.05 USD].
      CakeSeat9 posts big blind [$0.10 USD].

      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to Hero[ Kd Ah ]
      CakeSeat1 folds
      CakeSeat2 folds
      CakeSeat3 folds
      CakeSeat4 folds
      Hero raises [$0.40 USD]
      CakeSeat8 calls [$0.35 USD]
      CakeSeat9 folds

      ** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 4c, 6s ]
      CakeSeat8 checks
      Hero bets [$0.65 USD] === HU against an UNKnown villian on drawish board so I bet 2/3 pot


      CakeSeat8 raises [$3.66 USD]
      Hero calls [$0.94 USD]

      Here I had to think :
      1) I am getting more than 3:1 but not more than 4:1.
      2) He is betting (a) any FD; (b) OESD!?; (c) PP TT+; (d) Jx; (e) sets.

      Actually at the time I excluded (b), and (e) as I believed they "Balance each other out". I considered that against TT. QQ and Jx I have 6 outs provided that he does not have JK or JA. I believe that I am ahead of any FD and I concluded that as against his range the chance of him having JK or JA is "balance" by the chance of him having a FD. So I concluded that my equity was equal to 6 clean outs and I called.

      Was my thinking / logic wrong?
  • 2 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You can better do this with calculating equity:

      At the time you face the c/raise you still have $0.95 left. There is $1.6+$0.65+$0.9 = $3.15 for grabs, substract rake and you get $3

      So you have to risk $0.95 in order to win $3 which in %win is equal to 24%

      Now equilating it:
      Board: Js 6s 4c
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 24.195 % 24.176 % 0.037 % 75.787 % AhKd
      Player 2: 75.805 % 75.787 % 0.037 % 24.176 % AdAc, KhKc, QhQd, 6d6c, 4d4c, AsQs, AdJd, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, QJs, J9s+, 7s5s, 7d5d, KJo, QJo, J9o+

      I put some individual hands into the equilator to even out the likelyness and stuff. I don't think he would often slowplay AA/KK/QQ pre so taking the full combo's is a little bit exaggerated.

      Given the fact that you have a 0.195% higher equity, you can call but I definitly not recommend it since it is only +EV in the very long term (doing this scenario a 1000 times for example).

      So I would just bet/fold. I definitly not think he would c/R with TT/99 here.

      - Gerv
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      ty for the response.

      I am happy with my call. My question relates to how I caculated my equity.

      Could you please look at the hand in the following light:
      You have no read or stats on villian;
      You have no software to assit you equilator

      would you calculate your equity the same way I did?

      PS. He showed T7s for the FD.