[NL2-NL10] SSS FR NL25 - Check-raise on a paired board

    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed)

      SB ($26.40)
      BB ($19.05)
      UTG ($5)
      UTG+1 ($23.50)
      MP1 ($7.15)
      MP2 ($10.20)
      CO ($11.30)
      Hero ($5.05)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with K:heart: , A:club: .
      [color:#666666]1 fold[/color], UTG+1 calls $0.25, [color:#666666]3 folds[/color], [color:#CC3333]Hero raises to $1.25[/color], [color:#666666]2 folds[/color], UTG+1 calls $1.

      Flop: ($2.85) 9:spade: , 8:heart: , 9:club: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      UTG+1 checks, [color:#CC3333]Hero bets $1.75[/color], [color:#CC3333]UTG+1 raises to $3.5[/color], Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $6.35

      For some reason, I'm inclined to think it was a bluff, but there's no way I can call on that board, right?

      Thanks,
      Kknight
  • 6 replies
    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      With this play and position , he will usually hold a low pocket. Stove your equity on flop vs a pocket , so you can see if it is worth shoving the 2$ you have left or not.
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      OK...other factors:

      I only have 60 hands on this player, but the stats for those 60 hands are:

      VP$IP 16.67
      PFR% 3.33
      Total AF 1.00 (Flop 1.5, Turn 0, River 0)
      WTSD 27.27
      W$SD 66.67

      Equilator says that I have 32.6% Equity on the flop against 22-TT (I'm assuming JJ+ would've raised rather than limped.)

      Against a 16.8% hand range (55+, A5s+, K9s+, QJs, A8o+, KTo+,) I have 54% Equity.

      If we pull out AA-JJ and AK (again assuming a Pre-flop raise for those hands,) I have 59.4% Equity.

      Do any of those hand ranges seem reasonable? If so, I guess pushing the flop after the check-raise is the way to go? Although with that small of an agression factor, I'm thinking the check-raise indicates strength. Other thoughts?

      Thanks,
      Kknight
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Kknight!

      I think you can only count on the hand range: 22-TT. Maybe even A9, A8 and K9 are possible. I don't think that he check/raises you with hands like KT or AJ. So we have an equity of 24.5%:

      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 5.386.737 games processed in 40 seconds.

      Board: 9c 9s 8h


      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 75,457% 75,003% 0,907% 24,090% 22-TT, A9, A8, K9
      Player 2: 24,543% 24,090% 0,907% 75,003% AKo

      The pot is about $8 and you have to call $2 (4:1) which means we would need an equity of 20% (we have to win one out of 5 cases). Since we have an equity of 24.5% -> get the money in! :D

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      Originally posted by Puschkin81
      I don't think that he check/raises you with hands like KT or AJ.
      Hi Puschkin,

      Do you think I'm likely to get check-raised by 22-77 though? Doesn't seem too likely...

      If we then only assume 88-TT, A9, A8, K9 then I've only got 11% equity. Do you think that hand range is far too narrow?

      Thanks,
      Kknight
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Yes, that hand range is too narrow. On a paired board I have often seen also small pocket pairs reraising if they assume that you have overcards (like in this case). So I think that 22-TT, A9, A8, K9 is a good hand range.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      OK, makes sense. Thanks Puschkin!

      Kknight