Odds Multipliers

    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      I was just reading some Bronze articles on pot odds and I just wanted to show the method that I learned to calculate odds:

      The way I learned pot odds was by using multipliers, and I am sure the result is the same, though please correct me if I am wrong!

      If the number of outs is 8 on Turn for example - with an OESD - then I divide 8 by the number of cards remaining in the deck to get a percentage:

      8/46x100=17.39%

      Then I take the number 100 - which represents the size of any given pot - and divide it by the percentage:

      100/17.39=5.75

      So as long as the pot is 5.75 times larger than the bet I must make I am good to go. Of course I round up to 6 in order to give myself a safety cushion and to make the math easier.

      As well, the majority of people who calculate odds also add their current bet to the total, so if the pot is $60 and I need to call $10, the pot will be $70 after I make the call so they would give 7:1 odds. I'm pretty sure the Bronze article didn't say to add the current bet to the total...

      So on a sheet of paper beside my computer I have multipliers for every possible number of outs to quickly refer to, so that I just have simple math to do while I play, which is to divide the pot total by the multiplier.

      Does this work okay?

      I sure think the way I learned to calculate the odds is the easiest way compared to other ways I've seen. Some go by this 4/2 system where you multiply your outs by 4 on the Flop and 2 on the Turn to get a percentage that's close to accurate, and then you have to calculate the pot 3:1 as 4 and divide 100 by 4 and that gives 25% so if 25% is higher than the percentage you get multiplying your outs you have to fold. What a headache!

      Nav

      I'm just thinking this through logically to re-assure myself that my method works. If 17.39% of the cards remaining in the deck will help me win the hand, then so long as the call I have to make is 17.39% or less of the pot size, then the call is profitable long term.
  • 3 replies
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Hello!

      Your method actually seems pretty complicated to me, but that's probably because I'm not a maths genious and cannot calculate 8/46x100=17.39% and 100/17.39=5.75 without a calculator. However if I did use a method similar to yours, I would most likely use the calculation 46/8=5.75 which is kind of easier for me to calculate :) .

      It seems to me however that you have made a mistake in your calculation - according to your calculation, there are still 46+8=54 cards in the deck. If we are talking about turn ->river outs, we only have 46 cards to begin with and we have to make a ratio between cards that help us and the cards that do not help us, not all the cards ;) . This means that your best bet would probably still be using the standard formula provided in the articles:

      Odds from turn to river = (46 - outs) : outs
      In your case, (46-8):8
      In short, 38:8=4,75

      This means that you need 4.75 (or we can say 5 to be safe) to 1 pot odds in order to make a profitable call there ;) . The charts provided in the articles that give you the most common required pot odds to call with draws are certainly very useful, but I am sure you will soon not need to use them anymore. Later on in the learning process, this gets slightly more complicated with addition of discounted outs, backdoor draws, etc. into the calculation, but that is a bit advanced right now ;) .

      Best regards,

      Primzi
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Originally posted by Primzi
      Hello!

      Your method actually seems pretty complicated to me, but that's probably because I'm not a maths genious and cannot calculate 8/46x100=17.39% and 100/17.39=5.75 without a calculator. However if I did use a method similar to yours, I would most likely use the calculation 46/8=5.75 which is kind of easier for me to calculate :) .
      This math is already done for me, on a piece of paper by my computer (rounded off):

      1 out = 47x multiplier
      2 outs = 24x multiplier
      3 outs = 16x multiplier
      4 outs = 12x multiplier
      5 outs = 10x multiplier
      6 outs = 8x multiplier
      7 outs = 7x multiplier
      8 outs = 6x multiplier
      etc..

      That is pretty neat the 46/8 that you mentioned. I'll look into that further.


      It seems to me however that you have made a mistake in your calculation - according to your calculation, there are still 46+8=54 cards in the deck. If we are talking about turn ->river outs, we only have 46 cards to begin with and we have to make a ratio between cards that help us and the cards that do not help us, not all the cards ;) . This means that your best bet would probably still be using the standard formula provided in the articles:
      I divide 8 by 46 to get a percentage. 46 cards remain and 8 will help me, so 8 helpful cards equal 17.39% of the remaining cards. So if 17.39% of the cards will help me, the bet that I make or call must not be more than 17.39% of the pot size. Therefore 17.39% of any pot size gives a multiplier of 5.75.

      I just think that my way is easier. I just refer to my chart and for example with 8 outs I ensure that the pot size has to be 6x larger than the amount I bet/call.

      Actually, it's not my way specifically. I found it online by a BlackJack Card Counting expert turned Poker player. He thinks along the lines of BlackJack math rather than traditional Poker math.

      Nav
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Hello!

      I can see the error in your calculation: if you use the 5.75 multiplier you would then have to calculate the pot odds by taking a (how much do i have to pay):( how much do i have to pay + the pot itself). In general we only have to do some additional maths which there is no need for ;) .

      I do not know if you are a cash game or a SNG player, but there are articles with charts already included for every style of poker. For example, you have a great chart in the SNG odds and outs article. We do the maths so that the beginners don't have to (not referring to you but rather to other people who do not understand the maths as good). There are also some more advanced charts in the higher level articles, but for now this should do the job ;) .

      Also as you mentioned the size of the betting amount - if you are betting 1/6 of pot into the pot, you have rarely any fold equity. We usually only take into the account the odds and outs while calling - when we bet draws (semi-bluff), we need to take into consideration the fold equity as well (how many times a person has to fold for us to make a profitable bet) and I would advise you to usually bet 1/2-3/4 potsize, depending on the situation ;) .

      Best regards,

      Primzi

      Best regards,

      Primzi