[NL2-NL10] [NL10] AQ, an urge to call

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      After hitting nothing and seeing my opponent check-raising, I couldn't resist calling his raise. My thoughts at the time were that I had quite good drawing possibilities having an Ace over-card + a gutshot, then again it means only 7 outs for me and to call this raise doesn't seem wise because of odds:
      Pot odds: 3:0.85 = 3.5:1
      Draw odds: 40:7 = 6:1
      Are my calculations correct?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Hand abspielen

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP1(Hero):
      $1.85
      MP2:
      $5.70
      MP3:
      $6.70
      CO:
      $2.05
      BU:
      $10.05
      SB:
      $8.45
      BB:
      $2.00
      UTG2:
      $7.50


      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, A.
      UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 4 folds, SB calls $0.35, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.9) K, 5, J (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.85.

      Turn: ($3.85) K (2 players)


      River: ($3.85) 2 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $3.85.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows a pair of kings(Qs Ac).
      SB shows a pair of kings(3d Qd).

      Hero wins with a pair of kings(Qs Ac).
  • 6 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey Avatars91,

      with the smaller stack I like your bet/call on the flop, because then you get the odds to call with your draw(although I wouldn't count all 7 outs to be clean). Nice hand!

      According to your question, odds for 7 outs are 2.5:1 from flop to river. You should find all your answers in this article, but if you don't feel free to ask, just don't forget to mark the "Advise the judge to have another look" button.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Aah, forgot about the river! Now that I look at the chart, I indeed had 2.5:1 draw odds. But just for the sake of me progressing - how does one calculate the odds from flop to the river without looking at the chart? I couldn't find a formula on that same page.
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Fastest way is 2-4 rule, if you have 7 outs you multiply it by 2, when you need percentage of hitting your draw from flop to turn or you multiply it by 4 when you need % from flop to river. So you have smth like 28% chance and then you use this equation: odds = (1/percentage) - 1, which gives you 2,57:1 odds.

      You can also use this formula:

      flop to river: 1-[((47-outs)/47)*((46-outs)/46)]
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by Aimboy
      Fastest way is 2-4 rule, if you have 7 outs you multiply it by 2, when you need percentage of hitting your draw from flop to turn or you multiply it by 4 when you need % from flop to river. So you have smth like 28% chance and then you use this equation: odds = (1/percentage) - 1, which gives you 2,57:1 odds.

      You can also use this formula:

      flop to river: 1-[((47-outs)/47)*((46-outs)/46)]
      The 2-4 formula is very effective when you play and don't have time to make accurate calculations, but if you would like to know the exact formula it's pure probability equation...

      First you have to calculate the chances for you hitting one of the outs:

      "you hit turn" + "you hit river after you hit turn" + "you hit river after you missed turn" = chances to hit

      "you hit turn" = outs/47

      "you hit river after you hit turn" = [(outs - 1)/46]*[outs/47]

      "you hit river after you missed turn" = [outs/46]*[(47 - outs)/47]

      So, for your case that's:

      7/47 + (6/46)*(7/47) + (7/46)*(40/47) = 0.298

      From this on you transform "chances to hit" into odds:

      1/"chances to hit" - 1 = odds

      For your case:

      1/0.298 - 1 = 2.36

      It's a bit long, but I hope it's clear.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • gedwashere91
      gedwashere91
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.07.2009 Posts: 2,387
      Quick question Burek, on a rainbow flop why do you say you wouldn't count all 7 of his outs as clean? Wouldn't the only situation for that be if the opponent has AK (in which case only the 10's help Hero).
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by gedwashere91
      Quick question Burek, on a rainbow flop why do you say you wouldn't count all 7 of his outs as clean? Wouldn't the only situation for that be if the opponent has AK (in which case only the 10's help Hero).
      For example if villain holds here AK, KJ or 55, only 10s are good as your outs and for this reason you have to discount your outs on average. ...you should find answers on discounting outs here otherwise just ask ahead.

      Regards,
      burek2000