[NL2-NL10] NL50 AQo squeeze

    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($9.52)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($17.71)
      UTG+1 ($14.92)
      UTG+2 ($20.89)
      CO ($35.23)
      BTN ($5.79)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:club:

      UTG raises to $3, fold, UTG+2 calls $3, fold, fold, Hero raises to $9.52 (AI), fold, UTG raises to $16.04, UTG+2 calls $13.04

      FLOP ($42.10) T:spade: 9:heart: J:club:

      UTG bets $1.67 (AI), UTG+2 calls $1.67

      TURN ($45.44) T:spade: 9:heart: J:club: J:diamond:

      RIVER ($45.44) T:spade: 9:heart: J:club: J:diamond: K:heart:

      UTG 18/10 and raises 10% from UTG (230 hands though), doesnt seem to change his range with his position and a fishy stack size and first in raise 6xbb.
      UTG+2 is a fish 51/4

      Against a 10% range I have 49% equity so easy squeeze even if UTG could be a little tighter?
  • 4 replies
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      the raise size rings some alarm bells and also affects how the hand it played.

      after your shove, there will be 16.00 in the pot. UTG just need to call another 6 to win 16.00, pretty good odds for him to call. Making it a tough spot for us to squeeze here.

      So if we raise, we're just raising for value.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Looking at the situation , I do not see that much FEQ so I top it off at 7.5%-ish. The major factor is if UTG+2 will call you if you shove, UTG calls. Seeing as if he is a 51/4 as you predescribe, definitly yes.

      So doing the math of an EV calculation. I think this is ok:
      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 6,897,167 games processed in 4 seconds.

      Board:
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 33.489 % 29.498 % 8.305 % 62.197 % AdQc
      Player 2: 38.632 % 35.245 % 7.099 % 57.656 % 77+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo
      Player 3: 27.879 % 26.245 % 3.592 % 70.163 % JJ-44, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o
      So putting in your effective stack of $9.5 and deadmoney as $8.25 included rake reduction. Moreover an FEQ of 7.5% and a pot of $6.75 gives you an EV of +0.04 according to the excel sheet.

      If you are going to play heads-up, the EV would also be around the =EV line with a more -EV edge.

      Therefore I just fold this. Especially when I do not see UTG as a LAGtard

      - Gerv
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      Ok, but the case changes if UTG didn't raise 6xbb but the normal 4xbb instead?

      And where do I find that Excel sheet?

      Thanks,

      T.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Tampaloeres81
      Hi,

      Ok, but the case changes if UTG didn't raise 6xbb but the normal 4xbb instead?

      And where do I find that Excel sheet?

      Thanks,

      T.
      Yes because then you will create some more FEQ

      And the excel sheet can be obtained through xarry's coachings