[NL20-NL50] AJ in MP - can I find a call here?

    • Fagin
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 545
      Hi, played this last night and it has been bothering me since.

      Cassava Poker $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em - 10 players - View hand 517600
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      SB: $20.41
      BB: $29.26
      UTG: $3.80
      UTG+1: $18.61
      UTG+2: $17.73 Stats - 49/15/29 after 39 hands
      MP1: $20.00
      Hero (MP2): $63.68
      MP3: $25.47
      CO: $11.06
      BTN: $12.11 Stats - 51/6/35 after 310 hands

      Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is MP2 with A :diamond: J :club:
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BTN calls $1, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.80

      Pre flop is pretty standard, I raise with the AJ and get 2 callers.

      Flop: ($3.30) 5 :spade: A :spade: K :spade: (3 players)
      UTG+2 bets $3.30, Hero folds, BTN calls $3.30

      Horrible flop, I have top pair decent kicker but no spade! The donk bet of pot size is enough to make me think twice about staying involved and I expect I would have to call a similar bet on the turn. I reason that I could be ahead but even so I weakly fold expecting to be against another A and a draw.

      Turn: ($9.90) 2 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG+2 bets $9.90, BTN calls $7.81 all in

      I was right about the bet on the turn and if I was still in I would have a hard time calling that.

      River: ($25.52) J :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Any thoughts would be appreciated.
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think fold is better
      You are sometimes ahead,. but if they have pair+draw then you only have smt like 60% equity, but against flush, set or two pair you´re way behind
    • Fagin
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 545
      So the hand played out and the players had :-

      UTG + 2 had 10 :spade: , 10 :heart:

      BTN had K :diamond: J :spade:

      So it turns out that I was ahead on the flop and would have won the hand, but I am happy that I made the right decision at the time.

      I know I have folded far more winning hands than I have ever played but thats all part of poker.