[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR KQs is it +EV in long term?

    • Blackjed
      Blackjed
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.12.2009 Posts: 42
      I need independent oppinoion, my m8 thinks that this is to risky, but I think it's very positive EV.

      1. is it worth to call preflop?
      2. what about my line after flop?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Known players:
      MP1:
      $26.37
      MP2:
      $27.08
      MP3:
      $30.13
      CO:
      $25.00
      BU(Hero):
      $46.80
      SB:
      $25.00
      BB:
      $30.12
      UTG1:
      $23.55
      UTG2:
      $25.00

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, K.
      UTG1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, CO folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds, UTG1 calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($3.35) 6, J, 4 (4 players)
      UTG1 checks, MP2 bets $2.39, MP3 folds, Hero calls $2.39, UTG1 folds.

      Turn: ($8.13) Q (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $3.86, MP2 raises to $7.72, Hero calls $3.86.

      River: ($23.57) 5 (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero raises to $35.94(All-In), MP2 calls $16.22(All-In).

      Final Pot: $75.73.

      Results follow:

      MP2 shows three of a kind, sixs(6c 6d).

      Hero shows a flush, king high(Qs Ks).

      Hero wins with a flush, king high(Qs Ks).
  • 4 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Flatting KQs to 2bet is begging to lose big amounts of chips to outkicked pairs vs AQ, AK.

      Perhaps in position in a 3 way pot to play them as giant suited connectors is okay, but you are going to have to be ready to release them to a turn bet when you flop TPGK. Else you are just going to be 3-streeted outkicked.

      The problem with KQs as opposed to say 78s is that if you flop exposed trips you could still be stacking off outkicked. A board that is KKx you are going to have to go all in on and pay off AK, with 3 outs or a board pair to save your stack.

      Then if you had 78s and 77K comes you can safely go all in as the only hand you lose to is KK. Thus 78s is the superior hand because you have more an idea when you are in front or behind. KQs youll always be guessing and hoping.

      Line after the flop is fine. Great flop for you, good turn, best river. Turn bet is a little small though. If you were convinced here that villain had Jx or AK you should bet harder to extract value and protect against twopair / overcards / gutshot / exposed trips. Bet =>$6 in bet-call line.
    • Blackjed
      Blackjed
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.12.2009 Posts: 42
      thx, but turn bet is small to check correctness of opponent flop bet where he bet big in multiway pot = very strong hand, so my bet was more to check if he really still have that super hand or maybe it's air or Jx - min raise on my bet was 100% prove of 2 pares+.

      Another thing it was very easy to realize in that moment after min raise that if I will get flash he will call AI.
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Hey!

      We absolutely must flat here! We have a very strong hand that's gonna play GREAT in multiway pots. As jaissica said, there are the problem of reversed implied odds against dominating hands, but this is faaaar from refraining us from flatting this.
      I mean, we're not gonna auto stack off any TP are we? It will happen a lot that we flop TP call a cb, turn goes maybe x/x and we fire a vbet on river and get called by a worse Q, or maybe even somthing like JJ! We cannot be afraid to play these hands. There are very few hands that dominate us. I really prefer having KQs than 87s when playing a multiway pot, because in multiway pots we want flushes and straights. Trips are really not that strong in a 3 or 4 way pot. I wouldn't be happy stacking off 87 on K77 for example.
      And I wouldn't be happy stacking off an 8 high flush in a 4w pot for 120bb for example.
      Therefore KQs >>> 87s
      Remember that we're not gonna get married to TP and not even to to trips! I mean, we have the whole advantage of position here. We can vbet, we can pot control, we can bluff. We can do whatever we want! :s_cool:

      Post flop: Well played! =) I'm only wondering why you bet so small on the turn? Was there a specific reason?
      I'd bet $6 to extract maximum value here. If we don't hit the flush on the river, we might not have another valuebet, so we should extract maximum here while we can ;-)


      Cheers!
    • Blackjed
      Blackjed
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.12.2009 Posts: 42
      Originally posted by caltabiano


      Post flop: Well played! =) I'm only wondering why you bet so small on the turn? Was there a specific reason?
      I'd bet $6 to extract maximum value here. If we don't hit the flush on the river, we might not have another valuebet, so we should extract maximum here while we can ;-)


      Cheers!
      check my 2nd replay about small bet... my reads about his play was 100% correct he was holding set.