[NL2-NL10] tricky hand

    • RoundMidnight
      Joined: 04.03.2009 Posts: 39
      Known players:

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 2:heart: , 2:diamond:
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0,40, CO folds, Hero calls $0,40, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($0,95) 3:club: , 5:club: , 4:heart: (2 players)
      MP3 bets $0,60, Hero calls $0,60.

      Turn: ($2,15) K:heart: (2 players)
      MP3 bets $1,00, Hero calls $1,00.

      River: ($4,15) 2:club: (2 players)
      MP3 bets $3,00, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $7,15
  • 2 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716

      Yeah I hate this spot. Not 100% sure, so interested in what judges say.

      MP3 seems kind of TAG, so am assuming he is trying to hand read on some level.

      I would fold the river.

      Flop: Terrible to cbet, MP3's hand will usually have some sort of potential – Ax overcards, 33+, flush draw, :heart: broadways.

      Turn: This is a very good card for MP3 to second barrel. It's unlikely that K :heart: improved your hand, and also very hard for you to call with the made hand percentage of your range. You also never have a set after just calling on the flop.

      Bet sizing is kind of strange. It's possible MP3 has something like 77-QQ. Or maybe a draw and doesn't feel he needs to make a large bet since the board is so scary for you.

      River: When you call the turn your range should mainly be - :club: 's Ax :heart: 's, 22, 66, 56s. Etc. MP3 is never going to 3 barrel bluff with something like JQ :heart: , since just about everything you have improved in some way. Even if villain flopped a set, the river is so good for your range that he will be hating life. Similarly, he should never be value betting thin. Don't think he has Kx very often without also having a flush or straight, and if he does betting it for value is very questionable.

      He is generally betting the river for value vs your range, which is very strong. 22 is pretty much the worst thing you can call with, so I would fold as he quite often has Ax, :club: 's, 66, better sets.

      There's a danger that he has like QQ, KQ and doesn't know what to do, so just bets. But even then I think your equity is going to be terrible.

      Folding the turn is also an option. You technically have odds to call, but equity isn't great, outs are very contaminated and you can face some hard river spots like this one.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I don't like calling the flop all that much, with a underpair with tainted outs overall, play is going to be dicey on a lot of turn cards especially if villain is aggressive. Raising isn't bad but i feel like at nl5 people wouldn't fold that much either, any pair is calling and they might not even release Ax because they have a gutshot. We're ahead against some of those hands but seeing a showdown in a bloated pot might be hard. You're probably better off just fold that flop against a tight player, he might not even c-bet high cards. Peeling one isn't bad either but it'll definitely put you into crap spots along the way.

      As played fold the turn it becomes even thinner, and fold the river, this guy's line fits Ax or a clubs somewhat good, with his smallish bets earlier and then the big river bet.

      hope it helps.