[NL20-NL50] NL50 FR, AA with lotta callers

    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      Originally posted by purplefizz
      villain is 11/7/1.7/1.9k hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) On Game
      SB ($48.08)
      BB ($45.09)
      UTG ($47.75)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      UTG+2 ($45.26)
      MP1 ($7.80)
      Hero ($66.73)
      MP3 ($12.77)
      CO ($16.59)
      BTN ($50.84)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2, fold, CO calls $2, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.75, fold

      FLOP ($8.50) J:club: 3:club: K:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $7, CO folds, BTN calls $7, SB folds

      TURN ($22.50) J:club: 3:club: K:heart: 5:diamond:

      Hero bets $12, BTN calls $12

      RIVER ($46.50) J:club: 3:club: K:heart: 5:diamond: 2:heart:

      Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $29.84 (AI), Hero...

      is there a way to find a fold here?
      guy is pretty tight reg so i put him on at least AK or a set or FD. was most afraid of KK actually. esp after the flop call. dont think any straight wouldv gotten there. also KJ is pretty unlikely.
      board is pretty dry. still, bet largish on flop coz wanted to take pot down then since it was pretty healthy already and so many callers. thoughts?

      did i play this hand wrong?
  • 9 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      bet/bet/shove is there standard move, since if he didn´t raise you on the fop or turn then he likely has one pair hand and would call you down
      also since board is drawy then he can shove river sometimes missed draws, so imo you can´t fold river getting that good odds
    • LePokerMonster
      LePokerMonster
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.11.2008 Posts: 74
      I disagree with Kaitz! I think on the river c/c would be reasonable way to play, because every draw missed and you could induce a bluff there. And if villain makes a pot bet or smth like that, then it's an easy fold, because with so many callers it's very likely that someone has a set or maybe 2pair because if you think about it then there aren't many hands which you beat and which would call down the flop and turn and then on a blank river would commit all of the chips. I doubt that this was a bluff. Looks more like a slow played set, because with your bets on the flop and turn, you make the pot big enough to commit yourself which in my opinion is a really bad idea with this many players on flop. You should worry more about how to keep the pot small rather than how to get the most value out of your hand because this is truly a dangerous situation. I think fold river to raise because 90% of the time you will be behind even with the good odds. villain looks like a nit. The only hand you can beat is AK. since villains AF is only 1.7, it's really unlikely that this was a bluff.


      P.S. I would've made the river bet like 8$ because better hands will only raise you and you keep the bet small enough to fold against a raise.
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      great analysis. pretty impressed.
      thanks. must learn to let go of AA when i'm beat. easier said than done.

      edit: ur right btw. it was a set.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      well if you´re gonna c/f aces on that river, then it is very easy to play against you.
      Nit has there likely draw, Kx, either AK, KQ, KJ and sometimes set.
      A lot of times nit should raise set on the flop, since it is drawy and they usually are not like to give you free cards.
      So although he might not shove with missed draw, you can´t be sure he is not shoving there AK and since pot is 1.5 bigger than remaining stacks to me it is easy all-in. Don´t think you should make there hero fold as strong hand as yours
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      gosh im getting confused. but thanks so much guys for the insights, its giving me sth to think about. i did go all in but i was really doubting the move afterwards.
    • LePokerMonster
      LePokerMonster
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.11.2008 Posts: 74
      If you're saying that in NL50 there are more nits who would outplay me in this situation with a worse hand than plyers who would slow play a set this way, then I guess that NL400+ regulars are moving down the limits. I really doubt that this is +EV call in a long run
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      i think this had got to be a fold, villain had 2 pair minimum here. I dont see many players raising all in on the river with a missed flush at NL50 after hero shows enormous strength by firing all 2 streets, he cant think he can get a fold after that action the the raise is for pure value.

      id also check call river here if bet isnt too large, checking river here in most cases i think gains you more value as you also collect a bet from the missed flush draws.
    • Blackjed
      Blackjed
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.12.2009 Posts: 42
      Kaitz20 this time suggest week ABC play.

      Agree with last replays we have to c/c or c/f river depending on last bet.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      well BU has 30$ left on the river which is 2/3 pot. Really hard to c/f river, since he can easily valuebet there AK, which most of the times should be shove and sometimes bluff missed draws.
      So since I can´t find fold if he shoves, since pot is huge and he would call me down that spot with AK, can´t really see why is shove wrong on the river
      You´re loosing so much value against worse hands that he might call and you´re only worrying that player might slowplay set or KJ on the flop and turn