What does graph tell me?

    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Hello, ive had a bad week so have been taking a deep looking into my game, ive made a consistent profit every month since Jan 09 but looking at this graph it seems that something changed drastically since March 09.

      I dont fully understand the ALL-IN Ev part so what are the likely explanations for this sudden and consistent gap between my winnings and the ALL-IN EV??


  • 8 replies
    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      All in ev means that you get all the money in and whether you got in good or bad. Your ev will go up and your profit goes down when you got it in good and the other guy sucked out. your ev will go down and your profit will go up when you get it in bad and you suckout. your ev will stay the same when its a coinflip.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      ok, i think understand that, so as my AI EV is higher than my winnings that shows im generally getting it in good right?.

      but this graph, can this tell me anything about my game, it seems strange that up to March 09 my winnings/AI EV were broadly the same the suddenly and for nearly 12 months there is a wide gap?
    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      ok, i think understand that, so as my AI EV is higher than my winnings that shows im generally getting it in good right?.

      but this graph, can this tell me anything about my game, it seems strange that up to March 09 my winnings/AI EV were broadly the same the suddenly and for nearly 12 months there is a wide gap?
      Yeah it does. You cant tell anything about your game with a graph you gotta post hands and stats. It just means that you are not running as good as you used to.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      OK thanks Toby, i guess this a good sign,if ive been running bad for so long but still making money then things are actually loooking pretty good.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      Ih about this 1 or 2 key hands can make a big gap like yours
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Originally posted by lennonac
      Ih about this 1 or 2 key hands can make a big gap like yours
      surely not if im playing NL25/50 - theres is roughly a $1,000 gap?
    • MikeyH
      MikeyH
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2008 Posts: 181
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      it seems strange that up to March 09 my winnings/AI EV were broadly the same the suddenly and for nearly 12 months there is a wide gap?
      It looks like you ran below all-in ev from halfway through July to Sept, then started running normal again, running above all-in ev would bring you closer back to the line.

      I wouldn't worry about it too much if it was just a bad luck downswing. The gap is expected to remain the average same distance over time. However over time this gap becomes smaller relevant to your winnings.

      eg.

      1000 hands: (Over 1000 hands, expected to win $100, won $85)
      All-in ev: $100
      Actual winnings: $85
      % of all-in ev: 85%

      2000 hands: (Over 1000 hands, expected to win $100)
      All-in ev: $200
      Expected winnings: $185
      % of all-in ev: 92.5%

      3000 hands: (Over 1000 hands, expected to win $100)
      All in-ev: $300
      Expected winnings: $285
      % of all-in ev: 95%
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Thanks Mikey, starting to make a bit of sense now.