[NL20-NL50] nl50 RUSH huge draw but really deep

    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $150.65
      UTG1:
      $54.80
      UTG2:
      $71.75
      MP1:
      $50.50
      MP2:
      $52.60
      MP3:
      $34.50
      CO:
      $61.40
      BU:
      $16.75
      SB (Hero):
      $112.05


      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 9.
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks.

      Flop: ($1.5) J, T, Q (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, BB folds, UTG2 raises to $7.00,
      Hero?


      do i shove this?

      can i really commit 150 bb on this hand?

      ty

      the more i look at it the more the answer seems to be yes..
  • 8 replies
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      easy shove eh? your 65% against 2 pair and a 45% dog versus a set.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      easy shove eh? your 65% against 2 pair and a 45% dog versus a set.
      what about AK or KQ or K9?
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      well i hadnt figured on AK as i thought that unlikely giving the limp but yes with AK/K9 your 60/40 against but even KQ your slightly ahead of a flip (unless obviously KQc)

      but then (if ive done this right) putting in a range of 99+, all suited aces, and then K9+,T9+,QJ+,J10,AQ+ suited & unsuited your still a 60/40 favorite.

      But seeing as your so deep if you just flat call and the turn blanks you still have 53% with 1 card to come, so you can still call a potsize turn bet.

      worse case scenario with AK/K9 we have 20% on the turn but i still think you can call a potsize bet knowing that villian probably won be able to let got of a straight if you hit and will call 1-2 pot river bet?

      so either way i think is doable but when you then add in the FE you will have against his bluffs, weak 1 pair hands (lets keep at the 10% min) i think id shove?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      i prefer c/r in fact as opposed to leading out potsize. We want to get all in on the flop as opposed to later streets before cooler cards arrive and he can get away from his 2pair hand.

      No question here, reraise to $20 and call shove.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      Originally posted by mbml
      i prefer c/r in fact as opposed to leading out potsize. We want to get all in on the flop as opposed to later streets before cooler cards arrive and he can get away from his 2pair hand.

      No question here, reraise to $20 and call shove.
      im such a pussy
    • cojonel
      cojonel
      Global
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 1,039
      Dont tell me u fold that hand...go play ur limit where u fell confortable with...i think u heve to make it on the flop...2 stacks its not to much on rush poker and with such cards!i dont talk about equity ods...fisi about that but ship it dudeeee!
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      when he is making that huge raise then likely you´re against straight K9, AK is not so likely, sometimes set if he some reasons decide to limp pf and a lot of times two pair hands, QJ, QT, TJ.
      Don´t think players take that aggressive line with flushdraws or pair+straight draws too often.
      You´re not big favorite if you get all-in on the flop, so if you want to avoid 150bb swing then I think also one option is b/c flop and then either lead turn if you hit one of your draws or c/f depending how good odds you get
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      when he is making that huge raise then likely you´re against straight K9, AK is not so likely, sometimes set if he some reasons decide to limp pf and a lot of times two pair hands, QJ, QT, TJ.
      Don´t think players take that aggressive line with flushdraws or pair+straight draws too often.
      You´re not big favorite if you get all-in on the flop, so if you want to avoid 150bb swing then I think also one option is b/c flop and then either lead turn if you hit one of your draws or c/f depending how good odds you get
      thanks man, really reassuring, exactly my reasoning