[NL20-NL50] AA vs fish + pot bet

    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.40 BB (10 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      CO ($41.35)
      Button ($80.87)
      SB ($40.09)
      BB ($76)
      UTG ($49.79)
      UTG+1 ($48.73)
      UTG+2 ($38.36)
      MP1 ($43.40)
      Hero (MP2) ($87.97)
      MP3 ($39.80)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
      1 fold, UTG+1 bets $2, 2 folds, Hero raises $6.40, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $4.40

      Flop: ($13.40) 3, 6, K (2 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, UTG+1 calls $8

      Turn: ($29.40) 7 (2 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

      River: ($29.40) J (2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $29.20, Hero calls $29.20

      Total pot: $87.80


      Villain is playing 90/56 AF 2.4 after 53 hands

      Should I be folding this river or does he bluff enough to make this call +ev?

      Thanks
  • 8 replies
    • Naphalaim
      Naphalaim
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.09.2008 Posts: 100
      p
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      Hmmm why not bet on the turn? I'd bet on the turn since you still have outs + FE in case he doesn't have flush. IMO if you're checking the turn you can't call a pot size bet on the river.
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      against fish you don't have fold equity on turn BUT you often have the best hand if he plays with his stats AK and KQ like that.
      He won't fold and you can reevaluate on river if you check behind or shove depending on the card.

      But keep in mind that a check/raise on turn would be very nasty for you because of your redraw.

      As played: Easy call on river as you induced a bluff and he could easily "value-bet" AK or KQ or random bluff.

      What did he have?
      Let's see what the judges think.

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • santostr
      santostr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2009 Posts: 663
      I bet the turn, reevaluate the river.

      As played, I call. Could be a flush, but also could be anything with his stats actually. It's still 2:1, I think you are ahed enouth...

      I hate that J on the river. Some problems against KJ ;)
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Hello!

      We must bet this turn! It's a 3bet pot and we have an overpairand. That's 95% of the time enough to play for stacks. He's never folding a K here, he's not folding a pocket pair with a diamond. We don't have to fear a c/r at all, as we still have some equity even against a flush. But we gotta remember he won't have a flush a lot mor often than he'll have a flush! And then we 're missing out on a ton of value by checking behind! Bet turn biggish (~$22) and snap call if he c/r.
      If he c/c turn, shove any river :D

      As played, we call river for sure! We have AA afterall and he could still have bunch of weaker hands. We can never assume that this line means a flush specifically. It could be a K, it could be a random float (these really loose fish love to float OOP with total rubbish). This could even be something like 6x or 3x that he doesn't think will win at showdown and he tries to take down the pot.

      Another important thing to consider is that we have the A :diamond: , reducing the number of combinations he can have for the flush

      Cheers!
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      Well looking back I don't like my check on the turn at all, however, prior to playing this session I watched hasenbaten's video pot control vs protection and he played a similarish hand where he checks the turn however, it was not a 3bet pot so is that the big difference?

      I think this hand was just a cooler, villian had set 3's :f_biggrin:

      Against a tight oponent does the line change? I know some TAG's who call 3bets pre looking to set mine.
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      Calling 3bet with pocket pairs for 100bb is -EV.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by peche025
      Well looking back I don't like my check on the turn at all, however, prior to playing this session I watched hasenbaten's video pot control vs protection and he played a similarish hand where he checks the turn however, it was not a 3bet pot so is that the big difference?

      I think this hand was just a cooler, villian had set 3's :f_biggrin:

      Against a tight oponent does the line change? I know some TAG's who call 3bets pre looking to set mine.
      in 3-bet pot better is get all the money all-in against fish on the turn and river, since you hold overpair and nut flushdraw and he might hold there anything, starting with top pair hands that he´d never fold and finishing, 6x or 77-TT
      you can´t fold river. I think he´d play his top pair hand similar to the set or flush