[NL2-NL10] NL5 JJ overpairs fold?

    • Termis
      Joined: 01.07.2007 Posts: 149
      Known players:

      0.02/0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J:club: , J:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.16, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($0.38) 3:club: , 2:heart: , 2:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.27, CO raises to $0.54, Hero calls $0.27.

      Turn: ($1.46) 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.39, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $2.85
  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Well what exactly are you afraid of here?
      AA, KK, QQ will raise you preflop.
      33,22 - small chance to have it but it is still possible.
      2x - according to the limits it is quite possible but I am not folding overpair on this board on this limit without information.

      I put him on a PP that you beat - like 77,88,99, or AK, AQ, AJ, AT maybe.
      On the flop this raise looks like a donk raise - reraise him and make it about $2. You can just call and bet around $1,2 on the turn.

      Did you asked yourself why did he bet so much? Would he bet almost the pot wtih something that beats you, or let you see the river cheaper?
    • Termis
      Joined: 01.07.2007 Posts: 149
      He is tight overall. He could easilly call me down with QQ. Almost near potsize bet says he is pretty confident in his hand and wants to end a hand right there. Maybe afraid of overcards? Plus his showdown win is 100 and only went few times. Maybe my jacks were good, but this day i've tried to see showdown with overs on innocent low card flops just to get beaten by 333 set or bigger overs.

      Stop thinking that NL5 they go in with junk. NL5 they actually bet if they have something. And today it cost me alot for not believing some players like that.

      And frankly oop I don't see my self calling here. Either it's a shove on the turn or fold.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Flop minraise probably doesn't mean all that much, he likely can do that with quite a bunch of hands that we beat even if he looks tight. Him potting the turn is another story, i don't really think he'd continue so strong with marginal overpairs, and if he does, he probably won't jam the river with those once we call the turn. That means if we call the turn and he jams the river, either we're dead or he's completely bluffing.

      A look at his 3bet% would help, even tho over 132 hands it's only slight hint at his 3-betting range. If it's very low it's actually possible he flats QQ+ preflop and takes that line with those hands, which makes it a lot less worthy of a call down. Actually i'm pretty sure he can show you QQ already, don't know about KK+.

      Since his stats are a bit weird overall i'd probably end up calling the planning to check/call any river, but then again on don't play these stakes daily. If you're getting stacked there all the time by all means go ahead and fold, just make sure you look them up once in a while in spots that seem a bit odd, to make sure you're not actually folding the best hand routinely.

      Hope it helps.