SNG Variance?

    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      I have played roughly 500 18 man $1.75 sng's on stars over the last week or so. I started with a $30 account and now it sits at $150.

      That in itself is ok but 2 days ago the account was at $215 after a heater, I then went on a 34 game losing streak and since that my results haven't been good.

      As far as I can tell my game hasn't changed, I play a solid game as taught on this very site and it has always worked well for me when I've stayed disciplined. My ICM game could do with some work, I obviously have leaks but I just don't see how I can go from being so profitable to losing so much so quickly.

      Do you guys think that some of this can be caused by pure variance? Or do you think that due to the size of the downswing there must be something very wrong with my play?
  • 2 replies
    • pinnryder
      pinnryder
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2009 Posts: 597
      Try not to worry too much.
      Some winning players even have downswings of 100BI, but I'm not sure if that is normal.
      The most important thing is that your downswing doesn't affect your game. Review your sessions and see if youre doing some bad pushes or calls you wouldn't do when your in an upswing and try to eliminate these mistakes.

      If you follow the strategy on this site and improve your ICM knowledge you will be in your upswing soon enough!
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      I've played 1000+ SNG's with 9 or 10 players. I've gone on losing streaks of 10 (on 3 separate occasions), 11, 12, 13 and 14 games. I am in profit overall and have an ROI of 9%.

      I don't know if you think that twice the number of players = twice the variance but we can certainly say that variance would be more !

      34 is extreme yes, and if you're not psychologically prepared it can be really tough to get through it.

      Like pinnryder said It really is a good time to game review to see how you're coping under pressure. If you go 15/20 games into the losing streak and replay through the tournaments since that point, can you say you are playing your A game ? In other words, if the first 15 or 20 losses are down to variance, where (if at all) does Tilt take over ?

      On the other hand if you think that it's pure variance, perhaps you need a few days break forget about variance and poker all together and come back refreshed ?