[NL20-NL50] NL50 set against 3bet on river

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8, 8.
      2 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($5) 6, J, Q (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($5) 8 (2 players)
      SB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50.

      River: ($12) 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $8.00, Hero raises to $19.00, SB raises to $45.50, Hero calls $26.50.

      Final Pot: $103.

      So yeah, of course this seemed obvious to me at the time I played it because it had never crossed my mind before to fold a set ("set over set = cooler, don't even think about it" etc.).

      Taking a closer look at how the hand unfolded, I however realize that all I had here was a bluff catcher. What could he possible call a raise with on the river that I have beat? Very rarely QJ maybe, maybe even some other two-pair, but that's very unlikely. Betters sets make a lot more sense, especially if you take into account that he is a solid NL50 TAG. His sets and the straight have me beat, however, and I think they are almost the only hands he will play against a raise.

      As played, I think I have to fold to his shove - this is basically never a bluff unless you have massive history. But can I even profitably raise here?
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