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The odds 2 people hitting the same pair on the flop

    • bigdwong
      bigdwong
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 305
      Hey guys I was wondering if anyone knew how to calculate getting the odds of 2 players hitting the same pair on the flop.

      For example
      Hero has: A5

      The Flop Comes: AT7

      What is the probability that Villain has Ax?

      If anyone knows how to figure this out please let me know. :s_cool:
  • 2 replies
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      First put them on a range. In a limped pot lets say you are up against A8-AQ KJ+ QJ JTs T9s 22-88. How accurate this particular range is is unimportant, adjust this to your needs but I'm using it for the example. Now remove known cards from the deck and count combinations:

      AAT75 gone from deck

      AQ-8, AJ-8, AT-6, A9-8, A8-8, KQ-16, KJ-16, QJ-16, JTs-3, T9s-3, 88-6, 77-3, 66-6, 55-6, 44-6, 33-6, 22-6 = total 131 combinations of hands he can have. Now count how many of them are hands that beat you. After all its not just a bigger ace you are worried about but any hand that beats you. 41 of these combinations beat you. 41 out of 131 is about 31%. This makes the hand good enough for a bet/fold only.
    • bigdwong
      bigdwong
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 305
      Thanks buddy good reply