[NL2-NL10] NL5: Semi-low flush on turn from BB

    • Mugge88
      Mugge88
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2006 Posts: 510
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $4,98
      BU:
      $11,80

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9:heart: , 2:heart:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0,04, 3 folds, BU calls $0,04, SB calls $0,02, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0,16) 3:heart: , 4:spade: , Q:heart: (4 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0,14, MP1 folds, BU calls $0,14, SB folds.

      Turn: ($0,44) A:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,34, BU raises to $0,68, Hero raises to $3,00, BU raises to $5,32, Hero raises to $4,80 (All-In).

      River: ($10,56) 8:spade:


      Final Pot: $10,56



      It's the turn play I'm most interested in hearing your opinion on - I have always lived by the sentence: You can't lose to a higher flush if only 3 flush cards is on the board (along with: Oversets doesn't exist). Of course both scenarioes will happen, but quite rare. Well anyway, what to do?

      Mugge
  • 4 replies
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Mugge88!

      Go all-in and hope for the best. I have often seen two pair, sets and flushdraws in these situations, so you cannot really fold your hand here.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      Hi

      Very simple model (if any mathematician here correct me):
      - 2 players;
      - ur delt 9h, he got 5/51 chance of getting higher heart and 7/51 of getting lower;
      - ur dealt 2h, if he hit higher than 9h first card -> 10/49 for both hearts
      - if lower than 9h first card -> 5/49 for both hearts with one higher than 9

      5/51*10/49 + 7/51*5/49 =~ 0.035 =~ 4% of having bigger draw

      with 10 players dealt its even more unlikely.
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      actually this calculations are wrong, when 10 players are dealt the chance of getting over draw for one particular player is less than 4% but the chance that any player gets it might be bigger than 4%, so never mind :D
    • Mugge88
      Mugge88
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2006 Posts: 510
      Hehe, I don't know how to calculate it, but it doesn't matter much, I know it's a rare occasion (I believe he had 6 or 7 high flush in this particular hand btw)