[NL2-NL10] Rush QQ

    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.07)
      BB ($12.88)
      UTG ($36.82)
      UTG+1 ($4.12)
      Hero ($10.05)
      MP1 ($10)
      MP2 ($5.68)
      CO ($3.75)
      BTN ($14.10)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: Q:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.50

      FLOP ($1.75) 4:spade: 7:diamond: 8:diamond:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

      TURN ($4.15) 4:spade: 7:diamond: 8:diamond: 8:spade:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.30, UTG calls $2.30

      RIVER ($8.75) 4:spade: 7:diamond: 8:diamond: 8:spade: 2:diamond:

      UTG bets $3, Hero ?

      Villain plays 26/13, low fold to cbet flop/turn

      Is there anything that can justify a call here?
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      Well you get good pot odds. Only flush in his range is AKs. He might still be trying to take it down with a semibluff JJ/TT imo. I would call and take a note.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by BogdanDin7
      Well you get good pot odds. Only flush in his range is AKs. He might still be trying to take it down with a semibluff JJ/TT imo. I would call and take a note.
      I agree overall, tho i'm not sure his range is this tight considering he's an unknown, who knows what he calls the 3bet with. We're making a big mistake if he's blockbetting that river with JJ-TT and we fold.


      Hope it helps.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      But doesn't this look a lot like drawing to a flush, although the river bet might look a bit weak.

      What if he bets bigger and much close to pot? Will we fold then?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Sure it does. But he could have check/raised a draw earlier, same thing if he had 8x or a boat somehow. Maybe he also bets bigger with a draw when he gets there. So we're not exactly sure just how often we're ahead, but we could be. And since he's laying us around 4:1 on a call we only need to be good 20% of the time, which is reasonable considering we can put worse hands in his range when he takes that line.

      If he bets bigger i'm usually folding, it makes much less sense for hands like 99-JJ since it doesn't look like a blockbet anymore. That leaves badly slowplayed monsters and flushdraws that got there mostly, so if he pots it we're probably not good 33% of the time and we can fold.


      Hope it helps.