EV graphs misleading?

    • PetterG2
      PetterG2
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 224
      I often see people complain when running bad without basing it on anything other than their EV-graph. I myselves have experienced running above EV, and being on a downswing at the same time because of a lot of sick coolers over a short periode of time. I've also experienced the opposite as well; EV-graph showing a bad run when I feel like I run like god due to setups in my favor.

      I mean, the graph is only based on the equity you have when going all in, no matter if you put 95 % of the stack in as a favor and the last 5 % as an underdog(*). After all, it's not called ALL-IN EV for no reason, right ;) . It also doesn't account for sick setups when going broke with < 5 % EQ might be ev in the long run (set over set on dry boards etc).

      (*)
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($7.98)
      UTG ($6.65)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: K:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.45

      FLOP ($1.20) A:diamond: 6:diamond: 5:heart:

      Hero checks, BB checks

      TURN ($1.20) A:diamond: 6:diamond: 5:heart: T:club:

      Hero bets $0.70, BB raises to $2.12, Hero raises to $7.38 (AI), BB calls $5.26

      RIVER ($15.96) A:diamond: 6:diamond: 5:heart: T:club: K:club:

      Hero shows A:heart: K:heart:
      (Pre 74%, Flop 87.3%, Turn 6.8%)

      BB shows A:club: T:heart:
      (Pre 26%, Flop 12.7%, Turn 93.2%)

      Hero wins $14.90

      This might not be the best example, but I proves my point in a way.
      Reguardless how I good or bad I played the hand, at the time I was all in I had 6,8 % EQ meaning my
      EV was ($14.9 * 0,068) - $7.98 = - $6.97.
      If I however went broke on the flop (and the villain stacked off) I would have 87.3 % EQ with
      EV = ($ 14.9 * 0.873) - $7.98 = $5.03,
      and the river (with the same board);
      EV = ($14.9 *1) - $ 7.98 = $ 6.92

      In my opinion the EV-graphs are not as accurate when it comes to how good/bad they run overall as people may think they are, but I'm not basing this on anything other than what I just wrote above. Of course, it's probably pretty accurate about you running good or not if you have like xxxK ++ hands in your database, but who knows?

      What do you guys think? Agree? Disagree?
  • 12 replies
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      congratulations, you are one of the lucky few whoo received a brain at birth
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      I agree with you =) .. Everyone should be aware of what you wrote, its nothing new :P
      But i wouldnt say EV graph doesnt show if you run good or bad... It does, but It shows just one part of it.. Theres lot of other factors.. =)
    • ZhiCheng
      ZhiCheng
      Silver
      Joined: 04.10.2008 Posts: 2,294
      yeah exactly..
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Hey there.

      First of all, different software has different ways of handling all-in EV. I don't know exactly which one does it which way, but some take into account the whole pot at the street you go all-in, others only compute the EV based on what you invest at the all-in street and yet others again do a balanced approach where they compute the equity of every investment at the moment it was made (in which case your example is really bad).

      Now, it doesn't really matter which method is used in extreme cases; if you run 15 stacks under EV, you are most certainly running bad. The all-in EV is however only one aspect of a good or bad run. If you have a lot of coolers in your favour, your bad run might be very marginal. Contrary, if you also suffer a lot of coolers during the same time, you are on a very bad downswing.

      The only way to really determine whether you were on a downswing is thus to look at every big hand individually. Most of the time, however, downswing and all-in EV do correlate strongly. This is not the main issue with downswings, though.

      The focus of every player should be that a downswing only exists in the past. It's an accumulation of improbable events that happen each one in itself. Only retrospectively can you call them a downswing - at the moment each and every one happens, they are just probability at work.

      You could thus say that you never really are on a downswing at any time, no matter what your all-in EV or anything says.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      Originally posted by Kruppe
      congratulations, you are one of the lucky few who received a brain at birth
      +1
    • PetterG2
      PetterG2
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 224
      Originally posted by Kruppe
      congratulations, you are one of the lucky few whoo received a brain at birth
      whaaat? :P :f_confused:
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by PetterG2
      whaaat? :P :f_confused:
      If you were asking the question: "Are EV graphs stupid?"
      Then the answer would be: "Yes, of course."

      If you were making the statement: "EV graphs are stupid!"
      Then the reply is: "ldo"
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      All this oversimplification going on here. EV graphs have a purpose and they are not stupid. They are not misleading, either. If you are under all-in EV, you were unlucky with your all-ins. Nothing more. Nothing less.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      EV graphs are mostly for people who like to whine about how unlucky they are.
    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      EV graphs only show you if you were ahead/behind when the money went in, and lost/won.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      looks like a pretty strong correlation to me there.


    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by lessthanthreee
      looks like a pretty strong correlation to me there.


      yea have a pretty good red line, you should try cash