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[NL20-NL50] NL50 22 - Fold turned set?

    • Spiderwebz
      Joined: 16.08.2009 Posts: 21
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 2, 2.
      Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BU calls $1.50, BB folds.

      Flop: ($3.5) A, 5, 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, BU calls $2.50.

      Turn: ($8.5) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, BU calls $6.00.

      River: ($20.5) J (2 players)
      Hero bets $15.00, BU raises to $40.85(All-In), Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $35.5.

      The more i think about this hand the more i like this fold. Villain only shoves flush/higher set here, IMO. Opponent is solid TAG. Thoughts?
  • 3 replies
    • BoyRobot777
      Joined: 26.01.2009 Posts: 327
      and am thinking AJ ...
    • radyan111
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      He will often raise a set earlier in the hand for protection, especially on the turn when the third spade comes. I guess he would 3-bet JJ preflop so he either has a flush or AJ and I'm not sure he's always raising AJ for value there. Still, you need to be good once in four times to get 0 EV so I guess I would make the call.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I doubt he´d shove there for value sets. So to me it is always like flush or maybe sometimes indeed AJ that he decides to shove instead of calling down
      I wouldn´t fold set there, since my image is probably too bad, but if you looks him like nit who would not barrel too many times river then fold is fine.