Downswings and Upswings.

I've really had enough of topics in the PokerStrategy forum where people complain about AA and KK getting beat by various hands. Here's what I've learned so far:

* Every time you win a showdown you win more than you are supposed to.
* Every time you lose a showdown you lose more than you are supposed to.
* Example: NL50, we discard the blinds cause they don't matter here, they are small compared to stacks. You and another guy go all in preflop, you have AA, he shows KK. PokerStove shows you have 81.946% equity and he has 18.054% equity. This means that from the \$100 you have put in the middle of the table you have a share of \$81.946 and he has a share of \$18.054. Say your AA holds to win the pot of \$100. This means you've won \$18.054 more than you are supposed to and the other guy lost more than he is supposed to.

* Every hand is independant of the previous and the next one. The outcome of a hand has nothing to do with the way the previous hand ended or how the next one is going to end. This means that the terms Downswing and Upswing are just theory. You can look at your (preferably huge) sample and say "Here I've been in a nasty downswing! And here I've been hot!". This changes nothing though. It's not a downswing and it's not an upswing. It's only in your mind! It's just been a series of hands where you've been losing or winning pot after pot and this is completely and absolutely possible. Downswing and Upswing seem to me to have this feeling of anomaly where you *think* you should have lost less or you should have won less but at the same time this is a fake feeling because Statistics say both are completely possible.
But your brain is playing tricks and when most people lose a few hands in a row they see a pattern or they say the room is stealing their money. Or they say "My luck is so bad!". It's not luck! I mean - yes, it's good when you win stack after stack or you end 6 times consecutively in the money. But that's not luck in it's pure sense. When you do your job to play correctly and put enough of volume and voila - you win money!

* One-, two- and three outers. This brings us to a very delicate topic. I see daily people who complain "Hey, this guy hit one of his two outs on the river and busted me from this \$1500 guaranteed! And I had KK and he had 77! What a lucky retard!". No, he is not lucky. He has 19.527% equity in the pot. On a flop with no 7 he has 8% chance to win the hand. Does 8% look like 0%? Not to me at least. If a 7 hits the turn or the river this means it's been time to happen, it's not abnormal and it's bound to happen in exactly 8% of the KK vs 77 with no 7 on the flop. Don't blame luck, please! You did the right thing when the money went in. How the cards will fall is out of your influence. That's all that should matter, really.

* People need to adopt a Zen like indifference to bad beats. Bad beats where the villain hits his one- or two- outer. They are in reality your bread and butter! Cause the villain is most likely going to play like this again and again and you are bound to collect stack after stack. Because he remembers the lucky hand or the SNG where he crushed 4 people in the first 10 hands playing garbage and hitting flops and getting 1- 2- 3- outers. That's just the way the brain works.
People should embrace bad beats and learn to love them.
Even when it hurts to lose those AA to the guy with T7s who called 3-4 bb preflop because he likes hearts in the pocket and hits straight on the river.

Hope this helps somebody!