[NL20-NL50] I have to post this hand somewhere... weird shove

    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      I know this is supposed to be in the gold forum but I am silver. Besides, the players in this game are bad enough that this hand could be posted in the bronze section anyways :P

      I am in the SB and dealt AsQh in a $1/$2 NL game at the casino. There is a $5 straddle (like a voluntary big blind put in without looking at your cards) put in and 7 players call it. Only one of these players may be capable of trapping with AA and each player limps about 60+% of the time. I shoved all in for $210 preflop.

      How would you play this hand? A standard small-ish raise to $40 will certainly be called and then you play the hand out of position and have a bad stack size to even cbet. Is a shove overplayed?
  • 8 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      are any of those players is capable in calling if off it worser then AQ?
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      one of the players had like $50 and probably would have got it in with Ax but besides that no, I was only getting called by better hands. I think anytime I'm called I'm in horrible shape and I knew that but made the push anyway.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Then u shoved and got trapped by AA. :(
      You gave the answer. Limp in next time and see a flop for cheap. gl.
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      But you are missing the fold equity!!! I don't care if I'm only getting called by better if they fold enough to make my move +ev. You know what give me 5 mins and I'll figure out how often i'll be called...
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      I've experienced this plenty of times.
      I would just flat if there so many callers. wait till u hava a monster to get this silly straddling fish's money in
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      Assuming each player has a calling range of JJ+, AK
      Assuming each player always traps QQ+
      Also taking into account my A and Q as BLOCKERS (very important for FE)

      There are 1225 combinations of cards each player can have preflop (50 * 49 / 2!). Each of the limpers will have half or 612 of them (but never JJ or AK since I'm assuming each player would raise these preflop). Of these 612 combinations, he will call 3 combinations of AA, 6 combinations of KK, and 3 combinations of QQ. 12/612 = 1.96%. 7 players will have about this chance of calling

      The other two have just random hands so they are easier. 1225 combinations of cards and they call 3 combinations of AA, 6 of KK, 3 of QQ, 6 of JJ, and 12 of AK for total 27 combinations. 27/1225 is 2.2%

      Now to calculate the odds of getting called. 0.984^7 * 0.978^2 = 85.4% chance that they fold

      Now for the ev calculation

      0.854(43) - 0.146(95)

      My equity against QQ+ with AQ is about 25% according to equilator

      85.4% chance of winning $43 and a 14.6% chance of losing $95 (not the whole $210 since I can suck out sometimes)

      $36.7 - $13.87 = +$22.83 for a push

      I feel about 95% better
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      Interestingly enough even against a calling range of 4% this is still slightly profitable. Do you like variance? Shove AJs in this spot. Even if you turn your hand face up and shove it in that situation its still marginally profitable! Freaking crazy the effect of putting that much dead money into the pot preflop.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      so you shoved 210$ to win 35$ and you know that one of them might trap you.
      I think you have a little too much money there, to put all in risk. I would also like call pf and see what flop brings