QQ on the bubble - push or fold?

    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      So I had the (un)fortunate hand of QQ being dealt to me on the cutoff, while on the bubble in a 1$ 45-man SNG. ITM is 6, and there are 7 ppl left. Take a look at the actions I was facing:

      Table 1 010 Sit Go (146042720) Table 3 (Real Money)
      Seat 1 is the button
      Seat 2: SB ($8080.00 USD )
      Seat 4: BB ( $7500.00 USD )
      Seat 5: UTG ( $19713.00 USD )
      Seat 6: MP1 ( $16362.00 USD )
      Seat 7: MP2 ( $670.00 USD )
      Seat 8: Hero (CO)( $3340.00 USD )
      Seat 9: BU ( $11835.00 USD )
      SB posts small blind [$400.00 USD].
      BB posts big blind [$800.00 USD].
      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to Hero [ Qc Qh ]
      UTG folds
      MP1 calls [$800.00 USD]
      MP2 folds
      Hero ?

      A few things to note:
      - The hand previous, I had AKo MP3. I open-shoved and took the blinds.

      - MP2 has less than a big blind left. He has played almost no hands in the last 20. Either extremely tight or extremely card dead. He's about to hit the big blind again, which if he doesn't double up, I'm automatically ITM.

      - MP1 has a huge stack, and in the previous 10 hands, limped 33, AJ, and cold called a min raise with AKs. He obviously plays good cards, but QQ is still ahead (but not way ahead) of his range.

      - BU, BB, and SB all have me covered. BU could call and lose and still be in it, but the BB and SB losing would completely cripple them.

      And what I chose: [Highlight to see]
      I pushed. Limper called. Showed AJo and we were off to the races. Rivered the A. ITM dreams shattered.

      So what would you do?
  • 7 replies
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      I haven't looked at your choice, or the result if you posted it.

      I am shoving this without thinking too much.

      Bottom money spot in a 45 man isn't that attractive that you can pass up a chance to improve your fairly dire situation into something more likely to play for a higher payout. You are very short in chips yourself, so get it in here, hoping to be called. You really want to double (or more) up.

      EDIT: Now I looked at the result. Exactly what you wanted to happen, barring the outcome. Hugely +ev for mine. Will get you in the higher payouts far more often than it costs you bottom payout.
    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      What i did and what happened is in the bottom of the original post, but I hid it so you'll have to highlight to see.

      Thanks for the response. That's exactly the reason I chose to take the route I did, but I'd love to hear from more people to get their thoughts.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Well done then. My only suggestion regarding spots like this is feel happy when you've made the correct decision. Disregard the outcome after that. Losing 30% is locked in to this situation. So feeling bad doesn't make much sense.

      Winning 70% is just winning. In this case, 70% of the time you will have a chip stack of 8120, which puts you well in the money with a stack that can influence others.

      This will return you much more than the 30% of the time you miss a payout.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      And also, in terms of his range, and how far ahead you might be?

      Against 33, (any lower pocket), you are 80%
      Against AJ, you are 70%
      Against AK, you are 52% roughly.

      Against this guy limping, you really are well ahead.
    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      Thanks acidpost. Solid reasoning. I knew I would be a coin flip at worst, and like you said, 70% of the time I'm winning with a stack to contend. There's not enough money at the bottom of these to worry about bubbling when you have a better shot at winning.

      Would your opinion differ at all this was say a 180 man and you were on the bubble?
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Not sure of the payout structure on a 180 man, but I assume it is similarly weighted.

      I think if the stacks are like this, where you are second bottom by a fair way, and this situation arose, you should be looking to increase your stack to play for the bigger money. With a hand like this I really don't see any other play.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      aciddrop is right but in all honesty there is a definite leak in your game if you're thinking about folding here. Please visit some coachings, and post some other hands (even if it seems like an "easy fold" to you).