[NL2-NL10] nl100 - TT squeeze-spot

    • knb22
      knb22
      Gold
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 212
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($19.50)
      BB ($128)
      UTG ($175)
      UTG+1 ($109)
      UTG+2 ($101)
      MP1 ($89.45)
      MP2 ($125)
      MP3 ($93)
      CO ($53.85)
      BTN ($22.50)

      Dealt to Hero T:spade: T:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, fold, fold, MP2 calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $19.50 (AI), fold, UTG+1 calls $16, MP2 calls $16

      FLOP ($59.50) 8:club: 3:heart: 2:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $21, UTG+1 folds

      TURN ($59.50) 8:club: 3:heart: 2:diamond: 3:spade:

      RIVER ($59.50) 8:club: 3:heart: 2:diamond: 3:spade: 2:club:

      UTG+1 plays 21/9, 353 hands, 7% PFR from EP
      MP2 plays 15/9, 67 hands

      Do I have enough equity to squeeze here?
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey,

      I would be looking up his positional PFR raise 1st but I'm afraid it will be tighter than 9% and getting more to the 6-7%.

      That means that a normal calling range of your sqz is AK+,TT+ which is 4% hence folding 33% of the times.

      Against AK,TT+ you have only 35% equity so your squeeze is relying more on Fold Equity and since you got sth like 33% FEQ , we can make an EV calculation

      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

      Pot = $7+$1.5 = 8.5$
      Effective Stack = $19.5
      Equity = 35%
      Fold Equity is 33%
      Deadmoney = 5$ (1 caller + blinds)
      EV = 8.5*33% + 66%*(24.5$*35%) {{{Minus}}} 19.5*[1-35%]
      EV = +$2.8 + 66%*($8.576 - 12.675)
      EV = 2.8 + -2.7
      EV = +$0.10

      Reducing the rake 5% and you get a MINUS number
      So I would not make the squeeze here honestly

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Fantastic post and reply.

      I learn something here today

      ty
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Ok I went to do a bit of research.

      I play mostly 50NL cake where we dont have stats on players but with the help of HM we do have some stats for ALL players.

      Looking at the stats for ALL player on Cake NL50 I see the following:

      ToTal PFR: 9.1%
      PFR UTG 7%
      PFR BTN (steal): 23.9% BUT
      PFR BTN (after limpers): 11%
      FOLD to 3 BET: 50-55% (depending on position)

      So I came up with the following(assuming a 4bb open raise and 1 caller):

      1) Dont squeeze (bluff) the UTG raiser.
      2) Squeeze (bluff) MP raiser + with the following range:
      22+, A2s+, suited broadway.

      math:
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]

      pot = 4+4+0.5+1
      Foldequity= 50% (worse case)
      eff stack= 20BB
      dead money=5.5 (4+0.5+1)
      Equity=38% (I took the calling range of 4.68% which is TT+ and AQ+ which is about 50-55% of the PFR range)

      EV=9.5*50% + (50%*25.5)*38%-19*62%)
      = 6.22
      Rake 1.35BB so NETT PROFIT 4.87BB

      Against the 3BB raiser we can only 3bet for value.
      Against the 3.5BB raiser I will consider my stack size.


      PLZ COMMENT IF YOU AGREE / DISAGRE


      tl/dr: Playing against an unknown player a good starting point for a Squeeze range is 22+, A2s+ and any suited broadway.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Do you make notes on Cake? I found it a bit generalizing as you will miss EV against loose opponents and sometimes you valuetown yourself against nits.

      FEQ & Equity is not a static number, as you say it yourself: UTG is tighter hence FEQ is low as hell so you have to get your $$ from equity. LP is a bit reversed though you still retain your equity.

      A2s has 30% equity but still makes a +1bb profit hence you are doing it for value (and bluffing is like shoving 74o here)

      I think it is ok for a solid basis but you have to make adjustments after the first volley of squeezes as people will sometimes adjust to you which means you have to change your gameplan entirely
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Yes I make notes and yes I will not be static in my range but I need a starting point.

      Ty for the feedback. At least I know i am not to far off
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Ok played a hand on cake NL50:

      ***** Hand History for Game***** (Cake Poker)
      $50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - ET 2010
      Table - Pebble Beach (Real Money)
      Seat 2 is the button
      Seat 1: CakeSeat1 ( $19.63 USD )
      Seat 2: CakeSeat2 ( $26.75 USD )
      Seat 4: CakeSeat4 ( $62.23 USD )
      Seat 5: Hero ( $9.53 USD )
      Seat 7: CakeSeat7 ( $16.20 USD )
      Seat 8: CakeSeat8 ( $52.68 USD )
      Seat 9: CakeSeat9 ( $30.00 USD )
      Seat 10: CakeSeat10 ( $35.15 USD )
      CakeSeat4 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
      WotYouGot posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to WotYouGot [ Ac Jd ]
      3x folds
      CakeSeat1 raises [$2.00 USD]
      CakeSeat2 calls [$2.00 USD]
      1x folds
      WotYouGot raises [$9.03 USD]
      CakeSeat1 raises [$17.63 USD]
      CakeSeat2 folds

      ** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 9s, Qs ]
      ** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
      ** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]

      The std range for this limit from that possition is PFR 11.2 according to my DB.

      I dont know the std fold to 3 bet for that position but the total std fold to 3 bet is 48.8% according to my DB. I think the fold to 3 bet for the CO open raiser is much higher and probably as much as 63% being (pfr-std calling ranger)/pfr -> (11-4)/11

      AJos has 28% equity against the std 4% calling range.

      math:
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]

      pot = 4+4+0.5+1
      Foldequity= 63%
      eff stack= 20BB
      dead money=5.5 (4+0.5+1)
      Equity=28%

      EV=9.5*63% + 37%* ((25.5*28%)-(19*72%))
      =-0.55

      :-(

      looks like a bad squeeze.


      Is it so bad?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Check your calculation again, it's +1.6bb