When stop SnGs to be profitable?

    • pinnryder
      pinnryder
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2009 Posts: 597
      The topic is my main question:
      When is the risk/reward too small?
      When is it extremely hard to still have an edge?

      I'm not grinding SnG so I don't really have a lot of volume. I read that you just try to break even at one point and basically earn your money trough rakeback. Is this level really attainable when your just playing a few SnG a day and sometimes even skipping a day or two?

      I thought about playing SnG up to 22$ and then stay at that level and concentrate more on MTT where you can chip bigger wins, of course you need to invest more time then...

      Any thoughts or comments?
      Did someone choose a similar way?
  • 8 replies
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      sng's are a volume game, they always have been and always will be imo.

      the edges are so small in each game that you need to multiply all the small +ve edges you take out over thousands of games to earn a decent profit.

      if you cant put in the volume you will never beat the variance in sngs
    • pinnryder
      pinnryder
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2009 Posts: 597
      Ok but what kind of volume are you talking about?
      I've played around 500 SnGs this year and turned a nice profit of ~50BI but I consider myself a casual player.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      Originally posted by pinnryder
      Ok but what kind of volume are you talking about?
      I've played around 500 SnGs this year and turned a nice profit of ~50BI but I consider myself a casual player.
      depends on where you live obviously. a player from eastern europe will earn a very nice living on low stakes where the cost of living in his country is relatively low. A player from the US will have to put in teh same volume in mid-high stakes to get the same value because of the higher cost of living.

      most pro players put in 2k-4k games / month and maybe more.

      you will need at least a 1k sample before you can see if your game has some potential (this is the standard amount to start evening out the variance)

      however the more games the better obviously.

      as you move up the limits 500 games/yr will not nearly be enough to beat the variance.

      i have played 550 games on the 24s on FTP. my EV is +3% and my actual is -3%. and this is just variance.

      hope that made sense
    • pinnryder
      pinnryder
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2009 Posts: 597
      I meant that I played around 500 in 2010. And I know that the sample size is too small to have a good idea of my game.
      But I don't want to live from poker or at least I don't have the time and the skill at the moment so I would like to have an idea when it is not recommended to move up even if you're not a loosing player at the next higher limit but the time you have to invest is just not worth the profit or the risk is too high..
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      that is completely dependant on your skill level, what you want to do with poker, if you can handle bigger swings etc...

      if you are happy grinding out 1k/month then you can stay at the 12s/16s on FTP/PS and make an easy few extra bucks.

      there is always more money on higher limits but the work you have to put into your game to be profitable increases concurrently. its a personal preference whether you want to take this step. there is always profit to be made up the limits.
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      i would not go higher then 33$ on 1 table sngs. if you don't believe me search for winning players and see what happenes to their ROI once they get past 50.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      Originally posted by andreibalint
      i would not go higher then 33$ on 1 table sngs. if you don't believe me search for winning players and see what happenes to their ROI once they get past 50.
      its all about $/hr ;) who cares about roi
    • Unam
      Unam
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 17.08.2006 Posts: 8,999
      Hi pinnryder,

      I don't think there is one lvl that is unbeatable, it gets harder and harder and so will you, getting better is the key to beat them, but it is true, that swings are huge and you need to play a lot of volume to beat variance, but that will be a problem on any limit, with any winrate. And don't underestimate rakeback, why should a $ form rakeback be less valuable than a $ won by playing winning it.