NL10 to NL25 - When to make the jump

    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      So my BR is $25 away from being rolled for NL25. I'm trying to decide whether or not I should jump up a level when I'm rolled for it, even though I have very little in the way of actual hands played to figure if I'm truly a 'winning player' or if I'm just on some fantasy heater.

      Some notes/stats:
      At NL5, after 20k hands, I had a win rate of 7.18 (3.59BB/100).
      At NL10, after 20k hands, I have a win rate of 8.79bb (4.4BB/100).
      (I know I know, small sample)

      My roll consists of 100$ playing NL2 on party, ~160 in bonuses, and the starting capital. Everything else is poker winnings (including a few top 2 finishes in 1$ MTT Sngs).

      I've heard it said that your bankroll can grow faster than your skill so that's what I'm trying to figure out.

      Ultimately:
      - Is 20k hands enough experience to make the jump? If so, should I build up an extra 5 NL25 buyins to take a legitimate shot?

      - In the event that things go poorly, when do i suck it up and move back to NL10 ?

      - Are there any differences in play in NL25 vs NL10?
      Any advice, particularly from anyone that has made the NL10 to NL25 jump, would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
  • 14 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      just jump now while you are running hot and you can hit NL50 rather fast. If you drop 5 buyins, then go back to NL10. Frankly speaking NL10->25 isn't that big of a jump. But 25->50 is slightly harder, 50->100 and 100->200 is even harder.

      Ask yourself, has your recent winnings been due to 1) you outplaying your opponents or 2) you lucking out and winning flips regularly. If your answer is the former, then it's good to move up now cause you probably can beat the limit. 20k is too small of a sample to look at winrate but if you feel comfortable at the limits and that you have an edge then go ahead.
    • chuongdk
      chuongdk
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 210
      NL10 to NL25 is a big jump, do you feel that you actually beat NL10?
      I play SSS multi-table
      with winrate 1.8BB/100 after 28k hands (I know it is small sample size ^^), I had a downswing of 15 buy-ins.
      imo, I prefer 50 buy-ins for SSS
    • chuongdk
      chuongdk
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 210
      NL25 is the begin of limit where you can grind for living, so there are much more grinders than NL10
    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      Thanks for the feedback so far. Hopefully more ppl will chime in. A few more things to note:
      - playing solely on full tilt
      - full ring games only
      - bss only

      I'm not sure whether I'm beating the whole field as much as I'm simply playing as many pot with fish as possible while avoiding the clear regs. I suppose if the fish percentage is anywhere close to the same I'll probably make out ok. My nl10 winrate also includes an 8 buyin downswing where I was 2 for 7 in AA preflop allins as an example. Obviously these things happen but I'm pretty happy with my progress.
    • Joronamo
      Joronamo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 649
      Start taking shots before moving into the new house. It took me several shots before I comfortably stayed at NL25. Its a big step up and you can get into some pretty lucrative pots. Once you have played at least 50k hands on NL10 and you are beating it ie 5bb/100 and have the roll you can take shots. Create a stop/loss of $50 (2 stacks BSS) and move down straight away once you lose this. Eventually you are going to have to take a few hits on the chin and just stay at NL25 as you cant just wait for a heater of 3 days in a row when taking your shots.
    • Turcin
      Turcin
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.10.2009 Posts: 26
      I had big problem when I move up to nl25 because of scary money.. I couldnt play my A game because i was too passive.. Then I move down to NL10 and feel great.. After few days i try again on NL25, run hot and built roll for nl50.. And now Im regular on nl50.. I suggest you to try taking shot as soon as possible, because u want to move up quickly.. If u lose couple of BI, and feel like u cant play your A game, move down..

      Sry for my english, hope u can undertand :)
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Originally posted by Joronamo
      Start taking shots before moving into the new house. It took me several shots before I comfortably stayed at NL25. Its a big step up and you can get into some pretty lucrative pots. Once you have played at least 50k hands on NL10 and you are beating it ie 5bb/100 and have the roll you can take shots. Create a stop/loss of $50 (2 stacks BSS) and move down straight away once you lose this. Eventually you are going to have to take a few hits on the chin and just stay at NL25 as you cant just wait for a heater of 3 days in a row when taking your shots.
      This is good.

      There seems to be a belief that you have to jump up a limit hook, line and sinker. Take it slow, feel the temperature, go back to paddling where you are comfortable if need be, and try again later.

      GL
    • ZhiCheng
      ZhiCheng
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.10.2008 Posts: 2,294
      Hi nl10 and nl25 is not that much of a difference.. The only thing that can threaten you is that everything is 2,5times more, os you might get scared of loosing. Dunno whats ur br now, but dont be scared to take shots..If you drop down to 500$, you can simply get back to nl10 and shoot again later
      +even unsuccessful shot on higher limit improves your game and you ll beat nl10 even harder then

      edit:2bi stoploss is very little and can be easily taken away by variance. I d start shooting at 750 and drop down at 500
    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      Solid responses everyone! Thanks.

      So here's my goal then. I have 60$ bonus to clear still. I'm going to continue grinding at NL10 until the bonus has cleared or the expiry of April 10 comes. Whichever is first.

      Did some number crunching. In order to clear the bonus I'm going to need to play roughly 11k hands. If I can maintain my 8bb(4BB)/100 pace, that will add 88$ to my roll, and including the bonus money, $148. This will give me a legitimate 5 buyin shot at NL25.

      I found that when I jumped from NL5->10, I did play scared for the first 500-1000 hands or so, that's why I want to give myself this 5buyin shot so i can really play my A game. I have no problem moving down a limit either. Have already done it once, so that's not something I worry about. I'd really like to hop up to NL25 and stay there. Wish me luck!

      Cliffs:
      Grind 11k more and NL25 to give myself 5 buyin shot (providing I maintain current winrate).

      One more thing I forgot to mention. I usually 6 table NL10. Would it be smarter to mix in a few NL25 tables or just decide to take the shot and go for it with all 6 tables being NL25?
    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      Gl - regarding your last post I think personally you should only play 4 tables for a while - until you get settled - all NL25. Even playing like less is not bad.
    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      Originally posted by amplifyd
      Gl - regarding your last post I think personally you should only play 4 tables for a while - until you get settled - all NL25. Even playing like less is not bad.
      What I worry about though is that this is not what I'm used to. Playing 6 keeps me from playing marginal hands like AJo UTG for example. Shouldn't I try keep my game as close to the same as possible?
    • Joronamo
      Joronamo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 649
      Just 4 table NL25 dont even think about 6 tabling just yet.
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      I genuinley play 12 tables. When i move up to a limit i havnt played before though i forget about $/hour for a while and drop to 6 tables, if i start winning i play 8 tables then 12 etc. If nt then i drop to 4 tables. When you move up you have to focus on learning the limit, when you have learnt it well then the tables can increase again. You may ask why reduce your hourly rate for a period of time? Well in the long term once your confident on the new limit its worth it =) Hell if i never briefly gave up $/hour id never move up!
    • woopstash
      woopstash
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2010 Posts: 94
      So I made the jump. I took the advice and starting playing two tables at first. Suprisingly, it didn't take very long to get adjusted to the higher blinds and didn't play scared for long. At first I was very hesitant to call any turn/river bets as the price was just so big, but I got used to it quick.

      I find the skill level isn't much different than NL10. More 3betting and squeeze plays, but other than that, still the same plays you'd see at NL10 as well as the same horrible fish donating money.

      It's helped that I'm running 12.5BB/100 over 2300 hands. Always nice to hit a heater when jumping up a level. We'll see how things go when things settle down a little. Obviously 2k hands is nothing.

      I'm now back to playing 6 tables and feel comfortable with everything. Thanks for all the tips and advice. Hopefully I'll be here for a while (or maybe even up to NL50 sooner than later).