[NL2-NL10] QTs NL4SH

    • arisko
      arisko
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2009 Posts: 392
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $6,29
      Hero:
      $5,06

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q:diamond: , T:diamond:
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0,14, 3 folds, BB calls $0,10.

      Flop: ($0,30) Q:heart: , 7:spade: , J:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0,20, BB calls $0,20.

      Turn: ($0,70) 3:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0,40, BB calls $0,40.

      River: ($1,50) 9:club: (2 players)
      BB bets $1,12, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $2,62

      I'm really confused how to react to this type of donkbetting on rivers. I see it very often when players have busted draws and they just want to bluff it. But I also see it often when fishes acutally hit a good hand on the river and don't want to risk a check from opponent. I think there might be a good chance he had JQ,KT,KQ or some similar hand. Did I act correct and fold or should I have done something else?
  • 2 replies
    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      Hard to say really - the 9 has completed the draws he was most likely to call the flop on - and he has played check/call twice. Would really expect a fish to check/call again on their hands that you beat - and I so I think folding is best. Also noticing his low WTSD and high W$SD might sway me to fold a bit, although be weary of the small sample.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by amplifyd
      Hard to say really - the 9 has completed the draws he was most likely to call the flop on - and he has played check/call twice. Would really expect a fish to check/call again on their hands that you beat - and I so I think folding is best. Also noticing his low WTSD and high W$SD might sway me to fold a bit, although be weary of the small sample.
      Again this is reasonable.

      His line is coherent with him playing stuff like KT/Q9/J9 since you made smallish bets, even tho you have one T blocked. He could also have slowplayed something either preflop or on the flop, tho it's not that likely. Maybe if he knows a bit about the game he can also try and prevent you from checking back by valuebetting AQ there.

      That means if you want to call you you need to find enough hands in his range that you still beat, and since most players aren't really turning a made hand like a weak Qx or T9 that picked up "showdown value" into a bluff there ever, there are that many hands he could play like that that you still beat unless he's extremely loose, most likely only JhXh and very light flop peels with stuff like 9h8h for a gutshot. Since he also won't bluff with those hands 100% of the time even if he has them, you can't quite get enough hands in his range for bluffcatch in my opinion.


      Hope it helps.