[NL20-NL50] NL50 FR Steal vs Donk

    • VisuLatvijai
      VisuLatvijai
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2007 Posts: 255
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (10 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (CO) ($48.25)
      Button ($49.25)
      SB ($50.07) VPIP: 13, PFR: 8, 3Bet: 3,9, AF: 5,7, Fold BB to steal: 100, Fold SB to Steal: 92, Hands: 256
      BB ($118.17) 54/14 only 14 hands.. fish!?!
      UTG ($43.77)
      UTG+1 ($106.91)
      UTG+2 ($49.25)
      MP1 ($49.25)
      MP2 ($95.09)
      MP3 ($48.25)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 10
      6 folds, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.25) 8, J, 7 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

      Turn: ($10.25) 7 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $6.50, BB raises $113.17 (All-In), Hero??
  • 2 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Wow, this looks pretty ugly at first sigh, but after running some equity calculations, it's not ugly at all.

      Board: Js 8c 7h 7d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 33.736% 22.73% 11.01% 480 232.50 { Ts7s }
      Hand 1: 66.264% 55.26% 11.01% 1167 232.50 { 88, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T9s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T9o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

      This is a fairly strong range. I pretty sure we can add stuff like J8, J9, JT, QJ. But even with this super strong range, we get 34% equity which is close to the break even point for us. So, I'm definitely calling because I think we're often against a weaker range than what I put in the calculation. If you add J8 to his combos, you already get way more than enough equity to call:

      Board: Js 8c 7h 7d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 42.763% 33.49% 09.27% 840 232.50 { Ts7s }
      Hand 1: 57.237% 47.97% 09.27% 1203 232.50 { 88, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J8s-J7s, T9s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J8o-J7o, T9o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

      So, click the call button :D
    • VisuLatvijai
      VisuLatvijai
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2007 Posts: 255
      Nice..
      I called and he showed AQ :)