[NL2-NL10] Rush 99 overpair

    • Magijec
      Magijec
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2007 Posts: 91
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):
      $9.67
      SB:
      $4.32
      BB:
      $4.77
      UTG1:
      $3.17
      UTG2:
      $2.11
      MP1:
      $5.00
      MP2:
      $4.76
      MP3:
      $2.80
      CO:
      $5.00


      Preflop: Hero is BU with 9, 9.
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.20, CO folds, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.15.

      Flop: ($0.67) 4, 3, 6 (3 players)
      MP1 bets $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.00, MP1 raises to $3.50, MP3 folds, Hero folds, MP1 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.17.

      I am not sure how I should have played thi hand. I reraised to protect my hand against draws. MP1s range is wide, it could be set, straight, monsterdraw, maybe 77, 88, TT.
  • 4 replies
    • x3mwisp
      x3mwisp
      Platinum
      Joined: 31.03.2009 Posts: 3,604
      shove it all day long... (that's what the article says btw)
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Well since it's rush poker raise/call is likely fine, but that's why I don't like this format. It doesn't take much observation to make a better decision in that hand against a guy that seems to have bought in for 100bb and still have exactly that amount, which makes him highly likely to be a regular with autorebuy unless he just entered the game.

      If we make the assumption he's some kind of rush poker FR reg, then him limp/calling from MP1 just to 3/4 pot donk that drawy flop and make a small 3-bet over a raise means he has a set there all day long, so the correct play would mostly be to just fold knowing he has a set so often it's not even worth it to verify it when even if he sometimes has a big flushdraw or 54s, we're only flipping with him at best.

      But since we can't be sure about that and he could just be an idiot overplaying a naked 5x or 6x/77-88, you can't really be faulted for raising and going broke.

      I'm never raise/folding, it just doesn't make much sense to me to put in $2 in there just to make sure we correctly fold the last $3.


      Hope it helps.
    • x3mwisp
      x3mwisp
      Platinum
      Joined: 31.03.2009 Posts: 3,604
      Btw this spots are really hard without a read. Are u just folding here?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Honestly I just don't like MP1's overall line seeing his stack of exactly 100bb that makes me think "autorebuy". Even if he's not some setmining nit that only has a set, if he happens to be some reg he'll have a range we're flipping/dead against, mostly sets/5x+pair/big flushdraws.

      I think I'd overcall, fully knowing the turn will screw me over a bunch of times, but I expect MP1 to shutdown with draws if he misses in which case we can get the rest in against the MP3 fish, and to continue to bomb a blank turn with sets, in which case i'll just release my hand.

      Just folding on the flop would be a tad weak and probably isn't mathematically correct, but it's worth noting these are the kind of spots where people end up committing 100bb with a marginally good hand just because they happen to have an overpair, when in reality the 99 will rarely hold 3-way even against two fish, and if MP1 is a setmining reg we're smoked.


      Hope it helps.